The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a heated battle for first place in the Atlantic Division and the right to face the Ottawa Senators instead of playing one of Tampa or Florida.
The Toronto Maple Leafs recently lost the San Jose Sharks, twice, and would other wise be in first place right now. That's OK, the Sharks aren't as bad as you think - they've got some great young players and are already fun to watch, and they might take a big step towards the playoffs next year.
The Leafs are getting acclimated to their new players while they play out the last games of the season. Playoff seeding matters, but getting the team to gel is the most important thing.
With that in mind, I present a few interested stats and tidbits that you may or may not know. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Things about the Toronto Maple Leafs that you probably don't know
Mitch Marner the Hart Candidate
Mitch Marner is 6th in NHL scoring with 89 points, 19 points off the lead. More impressively, he is only 11 points off the 5v5 scoring lead (Crosby).
Marner actually scores more per minute at 5v5 than Nathan MacKinnon (league leader total points) despite taking over 260 less offensive zone faceoffs. Crosby, the 5v5 scoring leader, has taken 193 more ozone faceoffs than Marner.
So, what I'm saying is that Marner scores nearly as much as the scoring leader and the 5v5 scoring leader, but takes SIGNIFICANTLY less offensive-zone faceoffs. Therefore, were Marner deployed by coach Craig Berube in the way that other coaches deploy their best players, he likely would win the scoring title.
If we consider that Marner is playing harder minutes and better defense than the players who score more than he does, then he should be a Hart Trophy Candidate.
Better D Pairings
The conventional wisdom is to play Rielly with Carlo, and while their results have been great, the underlying numbers are a little concerning (not that concerning; they have a strong Expected Goals rating, but are underwater in puck-possession, shots and scoring chances).
Meanwhile, the OEL/Benoit line is playing to a 43% Expected Goals rating and has been terrible.
What is not well known is how well Rielly and Myers did together: They posted a 52% Expected Goals rating, which is lower than Rielly/Carlo however, with Myers the sample is bigger and the underlying numbers are better.
Meanwhile, pairing OEL and Carlo would allow the Leafs to move OEL to his better side and then they'd have three solid pairings. In this situation, it doesn't really matter who is the "second" and "third" pairings, as long as the Rielly/Myers line gets lots of action with Matthews.
Holmberg is the Man
Pontus Holmberg only has six goals and 15 points. He is below 50% in Expected Goals and people often wonder why coach Berube loves him so much.
The reason, and what I'm betting you don't know, is that Holmberg excels with star players.
Without William Nylander, Holmberg posts Ryan Reaves-esque numbers, but when paired together, the two have a 57% Expected Goals Rating, which is elite. The results of this pairing are even better, with the Leafs having scored 63% of the total goals scored when this line is together.
In a limited sample, he's had very good numbers with Matthews and very good results with Marner. Holmberg struggles when he's played on the fourth line. He is wasted as a "defensive presence" with Robertson and Domi.
But paired with Nylander and Tavares, Holmberg excells. With apologies to Bobby McMann (whose power and speed combo can work elsewhere) Holmberg should be playing with Nylander every night.
Pacioretty can't play
Pacioretty had a solid October: Six points in eight games, the Leafs crushed their opponents 7-1 when he was on the ice and he had a 59% Expected Goals game. I wrote an apology to him.
Since then: 29 games, 3 goals, 4 assists, the Leafs have lost 16-12 and he has just a 47% Expected Goals Rating.
Since January first he's only played 12 games, he has just one assist, the Leafs are losing 6-2 when he plays and he's posted just a 37% Expected Goals Rating.
Anyways, that's four thing I bet you didn't know!