The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to fill either of their most obvious needs heading into the Trade Deadline.
Tasked with upgrading the team's centre-ice position, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving inexplicably paid a King's Ransom for a fourth line winger.
Needing a puck-moving defenseman that could play at the top of his lineup, Treliving choked yet again. However, while he was not able to bring in Noah Dobson or a reasonable facsimile, he did trade for Brandon Carlo.
Carlo would have been a much better secondary pickup and the Leafs players, fans and investors deserved a bigger upgrade. That doesn't mean, however, that Carlo isn't a good player or that getting him doesn't help the Leafs.
It just means that in the NHL non-star players can only do so much - the best of them isn't even worth a single win over a full season. That said, marginal upgrades do matter at the pro level. Carlo adds size and physicality to the Leafs blue-line, and the Leafs are better since getting him.
Looking into Brandon Carlo's numbers with the Toronto Maple Leafs so far
Carlo has only played nine games with the Leafs, and has just one assist. That's OK though, as scoring isn't his job. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
Overall, Carlo has been good, not great. The Leafs are winning when he plays, 8-6 which is good, but probably the least valuable stat to look at in this small of a sample.
The biggest sample that we have in nine games is shot-attempts, and Carlo is lousy at them. The Leafs do not drive play with Carlo on the ice, and this is somewhat concerning when you consider that he's playing with Morgan Rielly and ostensibly, other offensive players.
Carlos has some of the worst puck-possession numbers on the team. He's down there with Ryan Reaves and Simon Benoit. It's just nine games, and his overall stat profile is good, but this is something to watch.
Ultimately, Carlos has a 55% expected-goals rating. This is great, especially when he's also actually winning his minutes. The only concern I have is that he's under-water in puck-possession, shots, and scoring chances, while posting very good high-danger chance percentages.
The Expected Goals rating seems to be heavily weighted towards high-danger chance allotment, and the fact that it's only nine games must be considered for context. Overall, Carlo has pretty good overall stats, but a few red flags.
What I mean is this: It's obviously good that he has a positive expected goals rating, and that he is winning his minutes. However, the things that build large sample sizes quickly, he struggles with. The things that take a long time to build reliable sample sizes - namely "goals" and "high danger scoring chances" are currently in his favor, but those are the stats that fluctuate the most - he's been on the Leafs for almost 300 shot-attempts but only 14 goals.
It is safe to say that after nine games, the results are good for Carlo. The underlying numbers are not great and there are red flags here that suggest he won't put up a 60% xGoals rating with Rielly long-term. This makes sense because Carlo is and has been for a longtime probably better suited to third pairing minutes.
On other side, the pairing of Rielly with Philippe Myers was quite good if unlucky. The Leafs optimal lineup is with Myers and Rielly playing together. It gives them a better puck-moving pair, and it makes their 3rd pairing so much better than it currently is. Moving OEL to the left-side and giving him an actual NHL partner, instead of Simon Benoit, makes the Leafs significantly better.
There is a tendency to assume that given the price paid to get him, Carlo has to be in the top-four. That's broken thinking. It doesn't matter what he costs or how he got here. The best place for him is the best place for him, regardless of outside factors. Sitting Philippe Myers doesn't seem like a big deal because he's not well-known, but there is evidence that Myers is better than Carlo, and he is for sure better at moving the puck, which is what the Leafs actually need.
Carlos was an expensive acquisition and he's done fine since the Leafs picked him up. However, sitting the very effective Myers essentially has the effect of making the Leafs the same as they were before the deadline, just different.