If he stays healthy and keep scoring at his current pace, the Toronto Maple Leafs Mitch Marner will finally crack the 100 point barrior for the first time in his career.
Ironically, however, Mitch Marner has paced 100 points every single year since 2020-21 where he finished with 67 points in 55 games and was on pace for exactly 100 points. The next season it was 97 in 72, then 99 in 80, then last year 85 points in 65 games.
So even though Marner has never cracked 100 before, he just has had bad injury/covid luck because it's been five season in a row where he was on pace for 100.
This season, however, is special. Not just because of the chance to finally hit 100 points, but because Marner's entire game is at a new level and he has been one of the NHL's best players this season. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Mitch Marner Is a low-key Hart Trophy Candidate, and maybe he should win it
Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon and Connor Hellebuyck are highly likely to be the three Hart Trophy finalists when the season ends. I think that Marner deserves to be on this list though, and while he doesn't have a realistic chance to win, I think he deserves fair consideration.
Marner has scored at a rate that, if not for how he is deployed by his coach, would see him possibly win the Art Ross and for sure lead the NHL in 5v5 scoring.
You see, Mitch Marner has started just 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone. MacKinnon has started 72% of his and Draisaitl has started over 60% in the ozone.
Marner has taken 263 less offensive zone faceoffs than Nathan MacKinnon, but only has seven less 5v5 points while playing better defense. That's extreme, but Draisaitl has taken 170 more than Marner.
Despite this, Marner is 8th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring per minute. When you consider how he's deployed, and how much he still scores, it's not hard to envision him winning the Art Ross trophy as the league's scoring leader if he was not used in such a defensive fashion.
That said, I ultimately wouldn't vote for Marner if I had a Hart Trophy vote, which I should definitely have, but do not. I would have him on my ballot, but not before Hellebuyck (winner), Draisaitl and MacKinnon.
I think Connor Hellebuyck is the NHL's MVP this year, but I also think Marner deserves more credit for what he's done. That said, at the end of the day, the Avs do better than the Leafs with MacKinnon on the ice and I don't think you can go around giving out Hart Trophies based on how you think players should be deployed.
The Avs do better than the Leafs when MacKinnon is on the ice vs when Marner is on the ice because they use him in a smarter way. Clearly Marner would score more and the Leafs would do better if he wasn't used like a checker, but that isn't enough to give him the most prestigious individual award.
He still deserves more credit for what he has accomplished, however, and that is that he is one of the best players in the NHL.