The other day we looked into one of the main strengths of this year's Toronto Maple Leafs: the five cheap young forwards that they have on their roster for a combined $4.75 million dollars.
Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves, Bobby McMann and Matthew Knies have provided the Toronto Maple Leafs with a dynamic group of young forwards whose speed and upside have helped launch a campaign for a division title and possible Stanley Cup.
In our previous entry, we discussed how the Leafs are getting so much out of this group while, at the same time, failing to take full advantage of it. We wrote about Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies and showed their effectiveness through statistical analysis.
Today we shall look into the remaining members of the group. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Cheap scoring depth: Part 2 of a look into the Maple Leafs young forwards
PONTUS HOLMBERG
Holmberg has 15 points and just six goals in 58 games this season, while playing an interesting role on the team. It seems that coach Craig Berube, for reasons we're not entirely sure about, absolutely loves Holmberg.
Berube has used him all around the lineup, and shown that he is a player he both trusts and likes. Holmberg has been pretty good, don't get me wrong, however, I don't know that he's warranted as much top-six ice-time has he's recieved, especially when Bobby McMann seems so much better.
And this seems obvious, until you start to dig into Holmberg's stats and his usage. First of all, he is a defensive player who doesn't have much in the way of offensive chops. This makes you think he should be on the fourth line, but that isn't the case.
Holmberg's stats are not great. A quick look doesn't explain Berube's love for this player. He's slightly underwater in puck-possession, the Leafs get outshot when he plays, his xGoals rating is 47% and the only real clue that he's any good is that despite all that, the Leafs have picked up more dangerous chances with him on the ice than they've allowed.
On the season, the Leafs are 17-18 in goals when Holmbeg is on the ice, but check this out: Holmberg's most common linemate is William Nylander, even though he's (Holmberg) has played just under half his total time with him.
When together though, they are winning 10-6 and have a 57% xGoals rating, which is extremely good. Holmberg's stats with other players - such as Marner and Tanev - suggest that he's an excellent complimentary player to the Leafs best players. On the other hand, Holmberg with the Leafs worst players is a disaster. This is worth following and could be an important factor in lineup construction.
BOBBY MCMANN
McMann just scored his 20th goal of the season the other night, becoming the sixth player on this year's Maple Leafs to do so. Impressively, 16 of those goals are at 5v5.
While Knies gets all the press as the Leafs power-forward, McMann is pretty much also a one of those. He's big, fast, and while he's maybe not that mean, it doesn't really matter.
Adam Fantilli, Jack Hughes, Jake Guentzel, and Nico Hischier all also have 16 5v5 goals this year, by the way. They all have played more minutes and have higher shooting percentages than McMann.
McMann is a top 20 scorer on a per minute basis at 5v5 this season for the Leafs. That is excellent, especially considering his numbers aren't juiced by a super-high shooting percentage.
McMann's on-ice numbers are bad, mostly. The Leafs have gotten excellent results when he plays, but tend to play in a way that should lead to losing when he's on the ice, and he has only a 47% Expected Goals rating. However, most of his minutes are with Max Domi and Nick Robertson, and their combined stats are not good, despite winning their minutes.
McMann's ability to score is great, but the Leafs have to use him better. Half his minutes are with the Domi/Robertson line and that isn't a line that really works. While it wins its minutes, the cost is that the top two lines have to play way harder minutes in order for Berube to shelter it with the easiest minutes on the team., Those minutes help the Leafs more if they go to Matthews and Nylander's lines.
McMann struggles with bad players and excells with star players. As a power-forward, this makes total sense. He's not going to drive play on a line in the NHL by himself, but like Knies he's huge and makes for an excellent complimentary player to the stars.
Conclusion
The Leafs young players are a huge advantage. They need to get Alex Steeves on to this team because you simply can't have a guy scoring like that in the AHL and not use him on your NHL team. Steeves and Robertson could form a dynamic and sneaky good fourth line.
Knies should continue with Matthews, and McMann should stick with Nylander and Tavares. The key to future success is to pair Holmberg and Marner and make that the line used for hard-matching other team's stars.
Taking advantage of this cheap youth movement is key to the Leafs success, and it's only going to get better next year as Knies' raise should be offset by the value of Steeves and Cowan's dirt-cheap production.