The Toronto Maple Leafs have a decided competetive advantage against almost all other NHL teams.
This is becauze the Toronto Maple Leafs have five excellent young forwards - Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann and Alex Steeves - who combine to make just $4.75 million dollars.
This is a major advantage, but of course the Leafs are not fully taking advantage of it. They instead chose to keep tbe under-producing and extremely expensive Max Domi and David Kampf on their roster, and they have Alex Steeves in the minors. They could have jettisoned those guys and had the cap space for one more star addition, but Brad Treliving is a horrible manager.
Regardless, having four out of the five and Steeves likely on board eventually is still a huge advantage and the main reason why the Leafs are as good as they are. (It's frustrating that they could be so much better with competent management, but whatever).
How are the Maple Leafs young secondary forwards actually performing?
MATTHEW KNIES
Matthew Knies has 25 Goals and 45 points in 60 games. He plays on the Leafs top line and the Leafs are winning his 5v5 minutes (43-39) and he has a 53% xGoals rating, and while he is scoring on 21% of his shots (which means his scoring is being overrated and isn't sustainable) he also has the lowest on-ice save-percentage among Leafs forwards, meaning he's also getting scored on way more than he should.
Knies is a future star having an awesome year, but he likely shouldn't be hyped as a future franchise player or anything. He is one of only 12 players with at least 20 5v5 goals and he is scoring at a rate of 1.86 points per 60 minutes is just below being very good first line scoring.
NICK ROBERTSON
Nick Robertson has 12 goals and 19 points in 59 games, and that's a lot better than it seems. He has played about 33% less minutes than Knies has, and 10 of those goals are at 5v5. He is only shooting 12% and is only scoring slightly less per minute than Knies is, but unlike Knies, he doesn't play on the top line with two generational players, nor is he shooting 20% (players have zero control over their shooting percentage and it is totally random).
Yes, Robertson has been the Leafs most sheltered player and he really can only win his minutes if he's sheltered, however, that might only be true when he's playing with Max Domi - their combined defense is BRUTAL. Robertson, however, could be deployed better and be more effective.
12 goals from the third line with limited PP time is very good secondary scoring. Robertson is just 22, has a motor that doesn't stop and is creative with an elite shot. 1.51 P/60 is just below Knies 1.8, but considering he's so sheltered it is disapointing that he has a negative-two goal-differential at 5v5 and his expected goals are a brutal , but again context is important here: his most common linemates are Domi, McMann, Rielly and Benoit.
Robertson has much better numbers when he plays with the Leafs best players, which he rarely does. There is enough raw talent and goal scoring ability to make Robertson a tantalizing prospect/project. If he was deployed with better players I truely believe he would give the Leafs another weapon. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
We will review the performances of Holmberg, McMann and Steeves in part 2 of this article tomorrow.