The Toronto Maple Leafs have been one of the NHL's busiest teams this offseason, opting to try and contend for the next few years as opposed to trying to rebuild, and given their lack of any draft picks over the next two seasons, that's definitely the right call.
Blockbuster moves such as adding Darren Raddysh and Sergei Bobrovsky, as well as junior phenom Gavin McKenna with the first-overall pick have given fans hope for this upcoming year, and for good reason.
The Toronto Maple Leafs look hungry for another trip to the playoffs, but with the-ever competitive Atlantic Division looking even stronger than last year, can the buds even qualify for the playoffs next season?
Let's take a deep dive into the Leafs' competition this upcoming season and how they match up against their rivals.
Can the Toronto Maple Leafs actually compete in the ever-competitive Atlantic Division?
The NHL's Atlantic Division has been one of, if not the strongest division in the league for quite some time now. From 2019-2025, every Eastern Conference representative in the Stanley Cup Final was from the Atlantic Division, including both teams in the 2021 COVID playoffs.
The Carolina Hurricanes broke that trend this year, but the Atlantic Division's dominance over the past half-dozen years cannot be understated.
Almost every Atlantic Division team improved at least a little bit, and there's not one team that would be content with missing the playoffs next season.
Near-locks for the playoffs: Florida, Montreal, and Tampa Bay
There are three teams in the Atlantic Division I'd say look like near-locks for the playoffs, and to no-one's surprise, I'm going to begin with the Florida Panthers.
An injury-riddled year for the cats last year, along with general fatigue from three-straight trips to the Finals, led them to missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. But with the addition of Brady Tkachuk, along with a summer of recovery, the Panthers look primed for another trip to the postseason, if not another run to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Montreal Canadiens look like they're due for another trip to the playoffs as well, despite running back virtually the same team as last season.
Despite no major additions to the roster, the likes of Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson, Jakub Dobes, and others look to continue their upward trajectory, and given their run to the Eastern Conference Final last season, I'd imagine the Habs are going to be just fine again in 2026-27.
The last near-lock team looks to be the Tampa Bay Lightning, who currently own the NHL's longest playoff streak at 9 years running, and despite losing the previously mentioned Raddysh to free agency, the bolts did add John Carlson as a replacement.
Even with no playoff series wins since 2022, the Bolts seem like near-locks to make the playoffs again, upping their streak to 10 years in a row.
Near locks to miss the playoffs: Detroit
You know things look tough when there's only one team in the "near locks to miss" category, and the Red Wings don't even look that bad to begin with. They've been close to the playoffs every year since 2023-24, and their overall roster, while not great, is far from terrible.
But the with the whole Dylan Larkin situation, as well as every other Atlantic Division team having made the playoffs in a recent season, it's tough to see Detroit making it next season unless a major change occurs.
I hate to say it, but it's starting to look more and more likely that the Red Wings' playoff drought is going to reach 11 years next season.
Bubble teams: Buffalo, Ottawa, and Boston
This is where things get really tough, as all three of these teams qualified for the postseason last year, and feature loads of young talent with potential to improve.
It's not that any of these teams are bad per se, it's just the rest of the division is that good.
The Buffalo Sabres are the toughest team to predict here, as they're coming off a wonderful season where they won the division and made the playoffs for the first time since 2011. They did add Olen Zellweger to their back end, but lost Bowen Byram and Alex Tuch in the offseason.
Letting Byram and Tuch go was probably the right choice all things considered, but can this team repeat their success from last year when they look objectively worse on paper? I'm not sure.
The Sens are another interesting team, as they've squeaked into the playoffs two years in a row now and feature an exciting young core hungry for more.
But their overall team just looks, well, fine, in comparison to the rest of the division, especially with their unproven goaltending.
Maybe the Brady Tkachuk situation can be some sort of "addition by subtraction" scenario, and the team could rally around a new culture, but that's still yet to be seen.
Finally, we have the Boston Bruins, another team who clawed their way back to the playoffs last season and features an exciting group of young players ready to make the next step.
But some questions still remain with the Bruins as well. Is their centre depth strong enough to compete in the Atlantic Division? Can their young guys take another step? Did they make the playoffs out of their own talent, or did they just take advantage of down years from Toronto and Florida?
Any of these three teams look capable of making the playoffs once again, and none of them are weak teams by any means, the Atlantic Division is just that good.
Final verdict:
The Leafs are in tough given their competition, as 7/8 Atlantic Division teams (87.5%) look strong enough to make the playoffs.
I think the Leafs pull out wild card spot #1, with the Panthers, Habs and Lightning earning the top 3 seeds in the division, with Toronto and Buffalo taking both wild card spots.
The division is so unpredictable, and the Leafs could realistically end up anywhere from #1-8, it is really that deep.
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