If the Toronto Maple Leafs happened to win last night's game, please consider that this headline goes a lot deeper than one game (also, I wrote this and submitted it before the game).
The Toronto Maple Leafs record isn't that bad - so far they are getting the results they need to keep pace in the battle for Atlantic supremacy - but their underlying numbers are brutal and there are a lot of concerning things going on.
Before losing to San Jose on Wednesday night, the Leafs had won four of five, which makes it seem like things are good. But they are so, so, so streaky and things are not good.
Let's dig in.
What the heck is wrong with the Toronto Maple Leafs?
The Leafs won four of five last week, that's good. They also lost two of their last three games to Nashville and San Jose, only happening to beat Philedelphia. Taking one-of-three from a Nashville, San Jose, Philly lineup is BRUTAL for any team, let alone one that thinks it's a Cup Contender.
Even when they won the four out of five, the wins were against Calgary (they suck), Colorado (they got extremely lucky to win this game), the Rangers (they also suck) and Philly (they fired their coach after the game). It's honestly a pretty low-calorie winning streak, and it was completely undercut by losses to Nashville and San Jose.
The Leafs are 5-4-1 in their last ten, which isn't very good for a team trying to win the Division/Cup.
What's worse is that in the preceeding two weeks before the Leafs won four of five, they lost five games while only winning two, which were both in OT/shootout. Without the lucky OT/ shootout wins they would have lost seven in a row.
This 0-5-2 stretch saw the Leafs lose to San Jose and Ottawa, two teams they failed to pick up a regulation win against this season. Their wins came in OT against Pittsburgh and in a shootout against Utah (another bad team) where they blew a three-goal lead.
The Leafs came back from the 4 Nations Tournement by winning five games in a row, and coupled with the four of five they won last week, this has kept them at the top of the league. However, if we dig down on who they beat and how, and we compare that with all their losses, things don't look good for the Leafs. At best they are extremely streaky. At worst they've put together two lucky streaks that have hidden how bad they actually are.
Let's see what the numbers say:
Since the NHL resumed on February 22nd, the Leafs are 10-5-2, which looks better when it's not written as 10-7. By points-percentage, they are the 11th best team in the NHL over this time. Not great, but not bad.
Those are good results, but remember, the results from short sample sizes are not as good at predicting the future as the underlying numbers are, because the underlying numbers can build a large sample size much faster.
The Leafs are 31st in puck-possession since the break. That's extremely bad becuse puck-possession has a massive correlation to winning hockey games.
The Leafs are 26th in shots percentage over this period. That means they have been outshot 391 to 347 and picked up just 47% of the total shots. This is extremely bad as well.
In this period, the Leafs have allowed 57 more scoring chances then they've had. They have allowed 17 more dangerous chances than they've had. Since the break, the Leafs are the 24th best NHL team at getting dangerous scoring chances.
All this has lead to an Expected Goals Rating of 45% which is 24th best in the NHL.
Here is what's worse: if you throw out the five game winning streak they had when the NHL resumed, their stats don't get any better, but they are the 27th best team in the NHL by points percentage since that streak ended. Since March 3rd, the Leafs are 5-7. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
What's even worse is this, and I'll end on it: Before the 4 Nations, the Leafs were covering their bad play by having the 4th best goaltending in the NHL. Since the 4 Nations, they rank 18th. This means they've been playing badly all season, but now the goalies aren't covering for them.
It will be interesting to see what happens from here. If I know the Leafs, they'll win the Cup! But if I know math, they are highly likely to go down in the first round. At this point, it's a good thing the season isn't any longer or they might be in danger of missing the playoffs all together.