With the Stanley Cup now decided, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the rest of the NHL have shifted their focus to the draft and free agency.
The biggest story and decision in Toronto centers around star winger Mitch Marner and whether or not the team should re-sign him. If Leafs general manager Brad Treliving and/or Marner decide not to continue the relationship, Toronto will have significant salary cap space to spend elsewhere.
The Maple Leafs also have a decision to make on center John Tavares. Most thought it was a foregone conclusion that Tavares would continue his stay with his hometown team, but work still needs to be done on that front.
The easiest route to replacing those two large contracts potentially coming off the books is through NHL Free Agency. It so happens that the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers have some big names hitting free agency in Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Aaron Ekblad.
It makes sense to consider weakening your main competition by signing their players to your roster. Still, a deeper dive reveals this would be a short-sighted blunder by Treliving and the Leafs, especially as it pertains to Marchand.
Signing Marchand would be a disastrous mistake for the Maple Leafs
Treliving and the Maple Leafs might not get the chance to present offers to the Panthers' players. All three of Marchand, Bennett, and Ekblad have publicly professed their desire to stay in Florida within days of their championship victory.
Reports have suggested a Marchand deal with the Panthers is already being discussed. If so, the Leafs should be thankful.
Marchand was a fabulous trade deadline pickup for the Panthers. There is no denying his significant influence on Florida's second consecutive Cup title. His clutch overtime goals changed the trajectory of multiple series in the Panthers' favor. He is likely to cash in now because of it.
Any contending team interested in his services, such as the Leafs, would be required to overpay in terms of length of contract or AAV to pry him out of Florida. The Panthers are probably the only team he might consider giving a discount to due to their championship status.
Overpaying a soon-to-be 37-year-old Marchand is not good business. Before his late season renaissance with the Panthers, Marchand was looking rather ordinary on a lost Boston Bruins team. Sure, the Bruins' season was going nowhere, but Marchand did not look particularly sharp playing with the best of the best on Team Canada during the 4 Nations Faceoff in February, either.
Also concerning, and more difficult to measure, is Marchand's motivation. How motivated will he be during the twilight of his career? He has now won two Stanley Cups and has been successful internationally. He has multiple gold medals from the world junior championships (2) while also winning a men's world championship and the World Cup.
Marchand will be highly motivated for a chance at an Olympic spot in 2026, but after that, his desire may be waning. He has nothing left to prove.
Committing to Marchand for too much money and term in hopes of removing a giant obstacle to their playoff success carries too much risk for the Leafs. It would also limit the Maple Leafs' ability to sign quality players from the much stronger and deeper UFA class of 2026.
At best, Marchand signing with the Leafs would be a one-season, shot-in-the-dark gamble. After the 2025-2026 season, the combination of his age, money, and regression would be an anchor to the Maple Leafs' quest for a Stanley Cup.
A Marchand signing is not a magic elixir that will cure what ails the Toronto Maple Leafs. It's the type of transaction that sets a franchise back.