Toronto Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka made a significant investment by signing free-agent goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. The hope is that the former Florida Panther will bring some much-needed stability to Toronto's net.
Signing the 37-year-old Bobrovsky at a $7 million AAV for three years carries risk. Relying on a late-thirties goaltender to play 40-50 games and provide average to above-average numbers is a gamble, but what do the numbers say from previous NHL goaltenders in that situation?
TSN's Travis Yost looked at the recent track record of goaltenders in their late 30s in the modern NHL. He looked at goalies who were successful in their early years and then put into platoon roles later in their careers, but still expected to provide credible play on contending teams.
What the Numbers Say About Signing an Aging Goaltender
Specifically, Yost studied the performance of NHL goaltenders aged 36-38 from 2015 to 2025. The key statistics Yost analyzed were games played, average save percentage, goals saved above expected per game, and single-season goals saved above expected.
Bobrovsky's last two years with the Florida Panthers were compared to aging netminders over the past decade. Other older goalies averaged 32 games played, a .900 save percentage, and a -0.10 GSAx/GP. Bobrovsky's numbers during his age 36 and 37 seasons were an average of 52 games played, a .900 save percentage, and a -0.03 GSAx/GP.
Yost's conclusion from his look at the numbers is that these older goaltenders have a somewhat high floor, but with a limited ceiling. He concluded that despite the decorated accomplishments of many of these netminders (multiple Vezina Trophy winners were on the list), outperformances from them were difficult to find.
Yost determined that blow-up seasons from these goaltenders were more common, as evidenced by the single-season goals-saved-above-expected numbers. The majority of older goalies failed to deliver a positive single-season goals-above-expected number. In 2025-26, Bobrovsky had a dreadful -23.4 with Florida.
Despite evidence to the contrary, Yost liked the Maple Leafs' signing of Bobrovsky and the Edmonton Oilers' signing of former Leaf Frederik Andersen. While the risk of injury and declining play is very plausible, he noted netminders "age more gracefully than their skating counterparts."
Yost liked how the Leafs and Oilers both "insulated their depth charts at the position." He stated, "I think the most encouraging thing that both organizations have done is de-stress the anticipated workload for each goaltender."
He called the goaltending bets by the Maple Leafs and Oilers "reasonable," each of them bolstering "the goaltending depth chart and are dream options to man the crease come playoff time." Yost cautioned fans to be "realistic about what these goalies are likely to contribute at this point of their respective careers," advising that "their ability to outright steal games may be no longer."
The biggest takeaway from Yost's analysis is that aging goaltenders provide stability rather than peak performance, making reliable, league-average netminding a significant win for teams that sign them. For the Maple Leafs, acquiring Bobrovsky is a success if he delivers consistent, average play, eliminating the team's recent volatility in the crease. Then, hope he peaks in a postseason run and recaptures his youth.
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