The 2026 Toronto Maple Leafs offseason has been nothing to snease at.
While their team would have a tough time being any worse than they were last year, new GM hire John Chayka has done an admirable job of improving the team's roster, all the way from goaltending, to the back end, and even their new-look forward group.
After the lacklustre second half to last season, Many Leafs fans (along with myself) have some actual hope and excitement heading into 2026-27.
But while the many changes made should point this team in the right direction, let reality settle in for a little bit here and take a look at some reasonable expectations for this Toronto Maple Leafs team.
Setting realistic expectations for the 2026-27 Toronto Maple Leafs
Let's face it, the Leafs have more questions than answers heading into next season, which isn't always a bad thing, and the many changes made have fans exciting for a roster that hopes to be faster, stronger, and tougher to play against.
But the reality is, the Leafs are banking on a lot of players bouncing back from disappointing 2025-26 seasons, or for many players to play at a level that may not be realistic anymore.
For the first criteria, Auston Matthews, Nick Paul, Morgan Rielly, and the Leafs goaltending tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz, all had disappointing performances last year in one way or another.
If the Leafs want to have a chance at making the playoffs, Auston Matthews likely needs to at least reach 50 goals again and Morgan Rielly needs to sharpen up his defensive zone play.
But probably the most important of all, their goalie tandem needs to stay healthy and win this team some games.
Last season, Stolarz ranked 43rd out of 55 NHL goaltenders who played at least 26 games in terms of GSAx, and Bobrovsky was even worse at 48th. These numbers won't get you near a Stanley Cup, let alone the playoffs.
If both netminders can reach their 2024 Cup-winning form, where they formed one of the top duos in the league for the Florida Panthers that year, the buds will be in great shape.
But reaching that level is way easier said than done.
For the second criteria, the Leafs are expecting the following players to either repeat career seasons, take a huge jump in their development next year, or continue their strong play into their late 30s.
These players include Darren Raddysh, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Easton Cowan, Gavin McKenna, John Tavares, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev.
All of these players have potential to be some of the Leafs best, and if they all reach a level they're capable of, the Leafs could be a scary team in the Eastern Conference.
But with all the players I've listed, 5 of their top 9 forwards, 5 of their top 6 defensemen, and both of their top 2 goaltenders are far from sure things next season. That's a substantial part of their team.
The only two Leafs I'm 100% confident in will put together a great year are William Nylander and Matthew Knies.
If all things go well, the Leafs could very well be one of the top teams in the league. Their forward group looks as deep as most contenders, their defense group looks stronger, and they have two goaltenders that can steal games when hot.
But if their many gambles do not work out, the Leafs are in big trouble, and another trip to the bottom of the Atlantic is inevitable.
I have the Leafs somewhere in the middle as a playoff bubble team, and I think they snag a wild-card spot when it's all said and done.
I've been a big supporter of John Chayka this year, as most fans have, but did he make too many gambles with his moves?
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