The Toronto Maple Leafs obviously would prefer not to have to play the Tampa Bay Lighting or the Florida Panthers when the NHL Playoffs begin.
With just under ten games remaining in the regular season, things are finally starting to take shape in the Atlantic division, which has the Toronto Maple Leafs as the number-one seed, for now. Obviously, much could change over the next three weeks.
The Leafs have beaten Tampa in all three of their matchups this season while outscoring them 15-8, and while they have lost both of their games to Florida, those games were very close. However, against Ottawa, the Leafs haven't had as much success as they've had against other teams. This season, the Leafs are 0-3 against the Sens, getting outscored 9-3.
If things stand pat for the final ten or so games for the Leafs, they'll meet the Ottawa Senators in the first round. Despite their record, this is the matchup the Leafs want.
There is only one easy choice if the Maple Leafs could choose playoff opponent
Although their regular season record against the Sens couldn't possibly be worse, the playoffs are different in a variety of ways, and if there's a team that should know that, it's the Leafs. Yes, this Leafs core has had its fair share of disappointing playoff stints, but it's not without experience. Heading into this playoffs, barring any injuries, this Leafs roster is made up of a total of 841 games worth of playoff experience. Ottawa's roster is made up of 361 games of playoff experience.
Of Ottawa's playoff experience, none of it comes from their core, as most of their experience comes from seasoned veterans such as Claude Giroux (95 games), David Perron (104 games), and Nick Cousins (63 games). It's quite the opposite for the Leafs, who have 480 more games of playoff experience than the Sens.
Heading into this year's playoffs, the core four have a combined 226 games of playoff experience. Yes, with little to show for it, but they've been through multiple playoff runs against teams with much more playoff success than this Senators team.
Not to mention that the Leafs have a head coach in Craig Berube, who won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis in 2019 and has 34 more playoff games behind the bench than Sens head coach Travis Green.
Although Toronto has more playoff experience collectively, Ottawa's goaltending, specifically Linus Ullmark, has ten playoff games under his belt, which is three more than Leaf netminders Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combined.
A playoff series with 2 home arenas
With experience in Toronto's favor, there's another factor that would most definitely be in Toronto's favor if these two teams face off in the playoffs: attendance. For years, the Leafs and their fans have had a second home at KeyBank Arena in Buffalo, where thousands of Leafs fans make the trip down the QEW to Buffalo and overtake their arena, making it feel like Scotiabank arena.
The fans who travel with the Leafs are real fans; they can't afford Scotiabank Arena's yacht club prices.
I'm not saying that Sens fans won't be in the majority for their home games in a seven-game series; I'm just saying don't be surprised if there is a little too much blue and white for your liking; there's a reason why the Florida Panthers barred Canadian residents from buying playoff tickets when the Leafs played Florida two years ago.
That said, the bottom line is this: Florida and Tampa have combined to go to five straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning three of them. The Senators haven't even made the playoffs while that was going on. No offense to Ottawa, who is very capable of an upset, but all three of these teams are playing to face Ottawa right now - not one of them wants to start the playoffs against the other.