The Toronto Maple Leafs are riding high after winning both of their weekend games.
First, the Toronto Maple Leafs visited LA where a Kings team fighting for playoff position outplayed them badly, but such paltry things as "how they play" are meaningless for the Leafs, who stole another two points.
The 3rd period against the Kings was pathetic (19-1 in 5v5 shot-attempts for LA), but somehow the Leafs actually won.
Last night against the Ducks, the Leafs played slightly better, but they still had to get extremely lucky to win, and it was against a bad team.
Where do we go from here? (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to play badly and post strong results
Despite playing terribly, the Leafs are 6-1-1 in their last eight. They now have a three point lead in the Atlantic Division.
This is great news. I love these results. I just don't see how they can last.
From October to early December when Anthony Stolarz was hurt, the Leafs had the best 5v5 save percentage in hockey and were 5th overall. I said their results were too lucky to last, and that they would surely tumble down the standings when their goaltending ran out.
With Stolarz out, the Leafs were only the 12th best team, but they had the 20th best goaltending instead of the best. They didn't tumble down the standings though, but they did fall off a bit.,
Since the 4 Nations, they are 13th in goaltending and 8th overall, outperforming their goalies quite a bit.
Overall, they are the 6th best team with the 5th best goaltending. That's pretty good. I don't mind that at all. They have proven that their goaltending is solid, but they don't need it to be amazing to win games. This would be a very great ending to the story, and would leave us happy entering the playoffs.......
...But there is just one more thing: Their recent play has been extremely bad and their results have been amazing.
The Leafs are one of the worst teams in the NHL since the 4 Nations break, in everything except results. And by barely beating two non-contenders this weekend, they added to that perception while also making it way harder to argue.
For example, who cares that their stats are down with San Jose and Chicago when the results are so good? Not me, if it lasts all the way through June. The problem, however, is that teams just do not regularly outperform their underlying numbers. When enough time passes, they will always revert to the mean. Sometimes the season ends before that can happen. The Leafs will hope to get lucky.
Regression is coming.