The Toronto Maple Leafs are in contract talks with Mitch Marner's agent, Darren Ferris.
Many media members report that Marner could seek $14 million a season. If that's the case, I think the Toronto Maple Leafs and General Manager Brad Treliving should focus on who to replace Marner with. I'm sure Marner will get $14 million, but I hope it's not from the Leafs.
A lot of people think that the Toronto Maple Leafs should have an internal salary cap where no player should make more than Auston Matthews and his $13.25 million cap hit. That arbitrary thinking doesn't really make sense, however, because Matthews signed his deal several years ago and for a much larger percentage of the salary cap at the time. If Marner makes a larger total, but it's a smaller percentage of the salary cap, then Matthews is still the higher paid player.
That said, $14 million is too much, and while they really can't afford to let Marner leave, they also cannot just hand him a blank cheque. (Salary cap info from puckpedia.com)
The Maple Leafs need to sign Mitch Marner, but can't pay him whatever he wants
I've always felt that Marner needs the Leafs more than the Leafs need Marner. Yes, things would be different without a player who gets 70 or more assists in a season, but finding multiple players to fill that overall gap could be better for the team. The Leafs could fill one or two needs through free agency, and use any cap left over to assist them in making a trade if needed. There is no player of Marner's caliber available in free agency this summer, so if the Leafs want to add a player who will get them at least 20 goals and 60 assists, they'll need to make a trade.
Finding the right player to acquire through trade won't be easy either, as the Leafs will need to assess how much they're willing to give up. They gave up many assets at the trade deadline to acquire Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton. The Leafs have no first-round draft picks in the next three drafts (2025, 2026, and 2027). They also have no second-round pick in 2026.
The first thing the Leafs will need to do if Marner leaves is re-sign UFA John Tavares and RFA Matthew Knies. Once those deals are done, the Leafs will need to sign a UFA forward, such as Sam Bennett or Brock Boeser. Depending on the asking price of each player, the Leafs could try to sign both Bennett and Boeser using the $13 million in cap space left behind by Marner.
Having a top six forward group that consists of Matthews, Tavares, William Nylander, Knies, Bennett, and Boeser doesn't look too bad. Many people, myself included, have said that the top six needs a shake-up. This group would give the Leafs a better mix of scoring and grit. Bennett (144 hits) would make the top six harder to play against. Both players can also score between 20-30 goals. Boeser has 25 goals as of Tuesday morning and is only one season removed from a 40-goal season. I don't think adding Bennett and Boeser will diminish the Leafs offense at all. (All stats from hockey-reference.com)
So, if Mitch Marner can't reach an agreement with the Leafs and he leaves during free agency, the Leafs will have enough available cap space to fill any gaps in the lineup. If Treliving can acquire the right mix of players through free agency or trade, I don't see the Leafs declining at all without Marner. The Leafs will have approximately $27.4 million at the start of free agency.