Toronto Maple Leafs winger Matthew Knies is the perfect third-wheel to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, which could mean a substantial pay-raise in the offseason.
The 22-year-old was looked at as a promising prospect for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but nobody expected him to be this good, this quick. Knies has 26 goals and 51 points in only his second NHL season and is quickly turning into a fan-favorite.
As much as Knies has been a great player and the team should probably look to re-sign him, if another team tries to offer sheet him, it shouldn't scare them and they probably shouldn't match it. There isn't a bigger fan of Knies than me, but the reason why he works so great is because of the value of his contract.
The same thing applied to Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting and it's the reason why the team eventually moved on from them. At this rate, and the rise of the salary-cap, Knies is probably going to be worth something like $6 - or maybe slightly more - and that number will depend on term.
Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't worry about a Matthew Knies offer sheet
If you're the Leafs, what's the magic number that makes sense? This season, you're paying Tavares and Knies a combined $12M - would it be possible to get them both for that number again next year?
If not, would you rather walk away from Knies, with hopes that you can find another ELC or UFA for close to the league minimum? You've definitely got to be wary of overpaying a guy who is scoring so much with a high shooting percentage, but at the same time, losing Knies would be hard to stomach.
But, would it be worthwhile? Avoiding a bad contract while taking on some sweet compensation makes it more palatable, plus the Leafs have replacements. For example, can Easton Cowan jump in and be that winger to Matthews and Marner? Speaking of Marner, all of this changes if he leaves or signs for more than expected.
If, however, the Leafsd did lose Knies to an offer-sheet, it might actually not be that bad. For example, if Knies signs for $6.8-9.1M, the Leafs will receive a first-round, second-round and third-round draft pick, which is incredibly valuable. The team can use all of those assets immediately and then trade them for a legitimate star, whether it's another winger or defenseman. Or, they can obviously draft and develop a few potential superstars, as their prospect-pool is very thin right now.
I'm not saying that I think the Leafs should walk away from Knies but there is a price that the team needs to be comfortable with because you never want to pay your second-tier players too much money in a salary-cap world. I know that he's already a 25-goal scorer at such a young age, but there are plenty of other examples of players like this who have excelled in Toronto at similar ages, but they haven't kept that trend going for the rest of their career.
Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson and Connor Brown are three other players who all scored 20 goals with the Leafs, but none of them were that player after they left and signed a bigger contract. As such, it's something the team has to consider, especially if they're going to get a big return if another team signs him.
Knies has been an awesome part of this franchise, but you have to look at the bigger picture when it comes to resigning him and you can't gift him an eight-year deal with a No-Trade Clause unless you're certain he's going to be a 30-goal scorer for that entire deal, with or without Matthews and Marner. However, if you only think that offense will come if he's playing alongside those players, then that's a scary thought.