The Toronto Maple Leafs are off to an interesting start to the season. All things considered, they've turned the concerning first part of the season into a mediocre last 10 games, where they've had a 4-5-1 record. They are just outside of the playoff picture right now, and rank eighth in the Eastern Conference.
There are some things that are going quite well. At the time of writing, the Leafs sit fourth in the league in goals for. Auston Matthews sits fifth in goals with 11 and points with 26, while William Nylander is tied for sixth in goals with 10. Gavin McKenna is tied for second in goals and points among rookies. John Tavares is looking to return soon, which will provide an offensive boost.
What's really keeping them from the playoff picture is how many goals they are giving up.
Goaltending is a struggle despite investing in Sergei Bobrovsky
There is only one team in the Eastern Conference with more goals against than the Maple Leafs, and that's the Philadelphia Flyers. The Leafs rank seventh in the league when it comes to goals against with 56. They have given up a goal in all 17 games this season, and four of their seven losses this season have come with at least five goals against.
Despite the Leafs attempting to shore up their goaltending in the off-season by signing Sergei Bobrovsky, he really hasn't shown up. His 36 goals against are the fourth-highest in the league and tied for the most among goalies with 11 starts. Not only are his goals against quite high, but he hasn't been between the pipes for enough of the Leafs' wins, currently sitting with a record of 3-6-2.
His backup is Anthony Stolarz, who may be the Leafs goaltender who deserves more starts. He's 5-1-0, which is a much stronger record than Bobrovsky's. Still, his 16 goals against in six starts is not a good sign.
The reality is, goaltending isn't everything, but it is important. Bobrovsky and Stolarz don't deserve all of the blame for the number of goals the Leafs have given up, but they shouldn't be completely off the hook either. On the plus side for Leafs fans, it isn't unheard of for Bobrovsky to have a rough start to the season.
The thing that Leafs fans should be concerned about is the defense and their contribution to the goals-against situation.
The Leafs need to shore up their defense
When Troy Stecher is getting time on the top pairing, it's definitely time to be concerned about defense. Sure, he's having an above-average season, but the Leafs really have not gotten the best out of their defense this year. Raddish, the Leafs' big offseason signing on defense, has been struggling. He leads the team in giveaways with 33 and took a bad penalty earlier this week that doomed the Leafs to another loss.
According to MoneyPuck, all but one of the Leafs' top six defenders have over three expected goals against per game. Only Morgan Reilly has fewer than three goals against expected per 60 minutes.
The Leafs' defense also gives up a lot of shots against, making the life of their goaltenders harder. While Bobrovsky's number of goals against his high, his shots against are also quite high. His 324 shots against in 17 games is the fourth highest among NHL goaltenders. Only the Canucks and Sharks have given up more shots against this season.
To put it simply, it's not one thing that's causing the Leafs to give up so many goals against, but it is one of the biggest things that the Maple Leafs will need to fix if they want to make the playoffs come April.
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