Grades for Each of the Toronto Maple Leafs Free-Agency Moves
The Toronto Maple Leafs had a disapointing start to the NHL's off-season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs started off weak with their lame end-of-year press conference but switching out Sheldon Keefe for Craig Berube seemed like a positive move, although Keefe doesn't really deserve any blame and he did an overall great job.
But after that the Leafs top priority was - or should have been - getting a front-line starter to avoid wasting the prime years of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner (who I am just going to assume won't be traded because of how epically stupid such an idea is in the first place).
This did not materialize as the three top goalies available were all snatched up before the draft - Jacob Markstrom was traded to New Jersey and Ottawa picked up Linus Ullmark. Finally, Jusse Saros was re-signed by the Nashville Predators.
This left the Leafs with no good options, and the signing of Anthony Stolarz is reflective of that.
Unfortunately, the Leafs appeared to be too far down the path of all-in before learning they couldn't get a top goalie. Going with Stolarz / Woll undercuts the Tanev and Ekman-Larsson moves, but if you squint you can view it as a high-risk high-reward move because Woll really is extremely talented, just fragile.
As I said yesterday, the Leafs moves don't really improve the team enough to justify the crazy cap committments they've made, and their roster overall lacks upside. Outside of a star turn from Knies or Woll, the Leafs appear to be stalled on their way to the top of the league.
Currently the Leafs are a decent team but don't seem like a team that could win the President's Trophy and be a top Cup Contender.
On the bright side, they still have a lot of cap space they can create by getting rid of Kampf, Reaves and Jarnkrok. Whether this comes now or at the deadline is TBD.
For now, here are the grades of the moves they made.
Grades for Each of the Toronto Maple Leafs Free-Agency Moves
Alienating Nick Robertson
He scored more per minute at 5v5 than William Nylander who scored 40 goals.
He has a motor that never stops and an elite shot.
Did the Leafs put him on the power-play? No they did not.
Did they give him minutes with their best players? Not really.
When they changed coaches, did they call him and assure him a fresh start? Appearently not.
Robertson was healthy-scratched in game 7 in what might be the worst move of Sheldon Keefe's career. The team that couldnt' score and couldn't get their power-play going sat one of their best offensive players in their most important game.
Robertson was the youngest player in his draft year and instantly made the NHL. He would have been a top ten pick the following year if he was two days younger.
The Leafs failed completely to take advantage of a great pick. Now he's seemingly exiting the organization despite the team desperte for cheap offense.
Grade: F -
Failing to Re-Sign Tyler Bertuzzi + Signing Max Domi
A $5.5 contract for Bertuzzi until age 35 isn't really that much. I was concerned the Leafs were going to give Bertuzzi $7 million x 6 and I thought that would be horrible.
However, he ended up getting a very small raise, and compared to what they paid Max Domi I would say this is a huge miscalculation. I would be fine letting them both go if the team went with one star player who made around $8 million, but if you're keeping one, keep Bertuzzi.
Domi is a one-dimensional, pass-only forward who isn't a good 3C and isn't a good top-six winger. If Domi is your permanent solution to playing on Auston Matthews wing, you've made a very bad decision.
Domi is 30 and I wouldn't have minded him at $3 million or less. Ideally less.
He's basically the NHL's most overrated player when you compare how much he's talked about vs his overall stat profile, which rates him as a replacement player.
I would have much rather paid extra for Bertuzzi and let Domi walk. The thought of having Matthew Knies and Tyler Bertuzzi on the left side for half a game in their primes was very exciting.
The thought of Bobby McMann playing top six minutes and Max Domi making Craig Berube's job so much harder than it has to be? Not so much.
Domi was a bad signing, but he does make them deep. I would have given his deal a C+ but comined with also losing Bertuzzi, which makes the team worse, I give it a
D-
Timothy Liljegren Re-Signed
This I love.
I would have loved it more if it was slightly cheaper for even longer, but I guess that Liljegren and his agent aren't idiots.
The Leafs needed to keep one of their only puck-movers, and they got him for a very decent $3 million cap-hit.
Liljegren has upside and he already wins his minutes. He also played on the top and second pairings and looked great.
He looked terrible in the playoffs, but he was coming off an injury and he was paired with human boat-anchor Joel Edmundson.
Overall, a 25 year-old puck moving right-handed defenseman who wins his minutes and already has a ton of pro experience is someone you can't afford to lose.
While I don't love the deal - I would have liked it longer and cheaper - I do love the player. I think as a player who doesn't score a ton or throw big hits, Liljegren gets underrated.
I give this move a
B+
Signing Anthony Stolarz
$2.5 million annaully for a back-up is perfectly reasonable.
Signing Anthonty Stolarz is, in a vaccum, a great idea. He's only 30, has played well over the last few seasons and recently won a Stanley Cup.
He has a career .915 save-percentage as well.
You can't complain about the player or the contract.
Pair him with Joseph Woll, who they re-signed but whose deal doesn't kick in for a year, and you have a very nice combo for under $3.5 million. That's just good business.
However....
This is the rarest and most special of times: the Toronto Maple Leafs best player in franchise history is in his prime. The team, as evidenced by their other moves, is all-in on winning now.
So the Woll-Stolarz combo doesn't look so hot under those circumstances. Woll has just 39 career games and is incredibly prone to injury.
He's also a year removed from being the organziation's top prospect and has performed extremely well in the playoffs. The question is, and it's a huge question: is this the goalie combo you want when the best player in the history of your team is in his prime?
The answer is no, and even the Leafs agree because we know, for a fact, that they tried to trade for Jacob Markstrom (at the very least).
You can spin this as a high-risk high-reward play, but ultimately it seem more like bad management. The Leafs should never have had Samsonov on the roster last year, and should have tried harder to get a goalie at the deadline.
On top of everything else, the Leafs so badly need to succeed next year that I just can't wrap my head around how they think this goalie combo is successful. (They also signed Matt Murray to replace Martin Jones which is an upgrade, but really, who cares?).
The fact that they missed on the three top guys available and had to settle on going with two back-ups is lame. If we aren't talking Auston Matthews prime here, of if the team had of had more recent success, I'd be a lot more generous but overall this gets an
F+ (based on the context of it being Matthews' Prime)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
As a $2.5 reclamation project, the Florida Panthers had OEL on their third pairing where he was a 54% player and very effective.
The Leafs gave the 32 year-old $4 million to either a) play on their second pairing which is dumb because he's not good enough to do that or b) play on their third pairing where he's way too expensive.
Last year the Leafs most used 3rd pairing was Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren who also won their mintues by about 54% and did it for a combined price of just over the league minimum.
While I expect Liljegren to be in the top-four this year, there is a very real possiblity that they have a $7 million dollar third pairing in OEL and Liljegren.
That's just too much.
Overall, i like the player and I like that the Leafs went with a puck mover. OEL, Tanev, Liljegren and Rielly is lightyears better than what they had.
They improved their D and I can't be too harsh because of that, but the money here is a bit much and I doubt a 32 year old OEL has much left.
However, it can't be overlooked that salary aside, the Leafs blue-line is miles better than it was.
C-
Chris Tanev
He's 34 years old and injury prone due to the punishing style he plays.
He is also one of the only defense first NHL defenseman to be worth the money. In his prime, he's a top 10 blue-liner and the true number-one the Leafs have lacked for years.
But is he still in his prime?
He is signed until he's 40. I love this player, I don't love the contract.
I love the risk/reward profile here, but it's undercut by going cheap in net.
Still, adding a player like this is hard to do and the Leafs did add one of the few impact players available yesterday.
It's not the worst deal, but it just doesn't make sense when paired with Anthony Stolarz and not say Jusse Saros.
With a better goalie, or just the player alone, I'd give this an A- but considering what actually went down:
B-
Not Re-Signing Lyubushkin and Edmundson
These two guys combined to get nearly $8 million and while I don't love the things the Leafs did, I very much love that they let these two walk.
Paying all those draft picks just to prevent themselves from scoring goals turned out to be a very bad decision by Brad Treliving, but he makes up for it by not doubling down.
Trelving does seem like the kind of guy who is good at identifying his mistakes and moving on. I like that.
I love that these guys aren't coming back. Not only that, but the Leafs didn't get David Perron, James Riemer or Jake DeBrusk.
All good moves by virtue of not being moves at all.
For not re-upping Lyubushkin and Edmudson, I give them an
A+
Signing Jani Hakanpaa
I don't know why teams continue to overpay for replacement players, especially ones who are 32 and so injured they may never play again. This is a bad move no matter how you shake it.
F
Missing Out on Steve Stamkos, a Cheap Chychrun and Nikita Zadorov
Zadorov is a 3rd pairing player but he's got 1st pairing upside and he's the biggest player since Chara. I wanted the Leafs to get him and I'd much rather have paid what Boston did and passed on Domi and OEL to make it happen.
I think Zadorov was the best player available today and it stinks the Leafs couldn't pull it off, especially since they were rumoured to be doing so.
The cost of Chychrun, whose addition would actually have made the Leafs better was an absolute steal and like the Ulmark trade you have to wonder why the Leafs weren't involved.
As for missing out on the chance to bring home Stamkos, that is just lame.
C- (cause you can't really hold it against them if guys made other choices).
Overall Performance
For the second year in a row Brad Treliving had about $20 million to spend and for the second year in a row he did not make the team $20 million better.
Sure, having Chris Tanev makes the Leafs a better team, but the problems are more about what they didn't get. By getting expensive pieces and not searching for value, or committing to younger players, they made it hard on themselves and didn't, I don't think, properly fix or do enought to address their problems.
They are still a team with extremely questionionable goaltending and Pontus Holmberg as their 3C. They still have David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Connor Timmins and Ryan Reaves taking up the worst spent $7 million in the NHL. They did not improve their secondary scoring. They did not any single piece that seems likely to make a massive difference.
Chris Tanev if he stays healthy makes the Leafs better. It's a big bet that he does but a more creative team might have found a younger and more sure path to improvement. Maybe not, its a hard move to evaluate. What are the odd Chris Tanev is a superstar who adds two or three wins to the Leafs season and makes them hard to beat in the playoffs? One in ten? One in twenty? Who can say but i'd need like 5:1 odd to bet on it.
Ultimately the Leafs needed to add a game breaking defenseman and they might have in a best-case scenario. They needed to add a top goalie and they didn't. They needed a third-line centre, and they didn't get that either.
For all the risk they took, they don't get much upside. Losing Bertuzzi hurts more than it seems because he was a star, even if he had a bad luck season when it comes to scoring. Losing Bertuzzi takes a lot of the gains out of signing Tanev and no one else they got really improves the team.
So their best move is not guaranteed to even help them signficantly and it's impact is lowered by losing an impact player in Bertuzzi.
The goaltending is barely improved, if it did at all. The blue-line is a lot better but it's also super-old and lacks upside. The Leafs spent a lot of money but didn't get much for it. They do not seem creative, bold or aggressive.
They seem like they are outdated, passive and unsure of themselves.
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