Morgan Rielly should still be traded, but only for Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson being dealt to the Toronto Maple Leafs isn't an idea that only recently floated into the hockey world’s ether, but it is an idea that Elliotte Friedman poured some gasoline on during the 32 Thoughts podcast three days ago.

Bringing in a player of Karlsson’s stature and skill set is a no-brainer for a team on a timeline akin to Matthews' current contract (which is set to expire in two years). With Karlsson’s contract expiring at the end of next season, the Leafs' direction heading into Matthews' next potential extension in 2028 will depend on a successful season, which most Leafs fans would argue goes beyond simply returning to the playoffs.

Since joining the Pens three years ago, Karlsson has eclipsed 50 points and double-digit goals every season. He's only missed seven games in the last four seasons and has been in the midst of a five-year renaissance after four consecutive seasons of missing at least 25 games during his San Jose tenure.

Mock Trade

• Pens Receive:  Morgan Rielly, Topi Niemelä
• Leafs Receive: Erik Karlsson, 2027 7th round draft pick (via Columbus)
• Blue Jackets Receive: Dakota Joshua, 2027 5th round pick (via Toronto)

Current Cap Space: Toronto -2.7M Pittsburgh +13.6M Columbus +12.6M

Cap Net: Toronto -750K Pittsburgh -2.5M Columbus +3.3M

Adding Max Domi to LTIR to begin the season will shed an additional $3.75 million off the Leafs' cap, bringing them roughly $1.75 million dollars below the ceiling to begin the year.

Why a Rielly-for-Karlsson swap would help the Leafs

Karlsson, 36, is coming off his best season since joining the Pens in 2023 with 66 points in 75 games—a modest output for a player of Karlsson’s calibre and amongst the top 10 at his position. He is, however, in the twilight of his career; he’s on an expiring deal and doesn’t exactly emphasize the root word of his positional obligation. The one year remaining on his $10 million cap hit fits the Leafs' timeline that John Chayka is lining up and adds another right-handed defenceman to round out their lineup.

Rielly, 32, has only ever eclipsed 66 points twice in his career, the last time being in 2022. He’s got four years left on his deal—the one that Dubas signed him to—which, in all fairness, is beginning to look more cap-friendly with every passing day. Pittsburgh’s need for left-handed defencemen that can wheel also happens to be glaringly obvious, and although their timeline, one could argue, is similiar to the Leafs, Reilly's contract may just end up being more palatable in the latter part of his deal as the cap continues to grow, but that is still contingent on whether or not he can find new ways to justify his salary as he ages with it.

Topi Niemelä is the sweetener in this deal and would step into a farm system that, aside from Harrison Brunicke, is thin. A former third-round pick in 2020, he's one of two prospects the Leafs still have in their farm system that Dubas himself drafted (the other is Artur Akhtyamov). Still only 23 years old, he profiles as a high-IQ, right-handed, puck-moving defenseman—sound familiar?

If Columbus is willing to take a flier on a bounce-back year for Joshua, the added pick swap makes this a low-risk move for a team stuck in purgatory and bereft of roster depth in their forward group. It's also worth noting that Joshua is owed only $2.625M of his $3.25M cap hit over the final two years of his deal, which may make it an even more palatable move for Columbus' management.

It's also important to note that this is contingent on whether Reilly and Karlsson would waive their NMC to make this deal happen. There are significant relational narratives at play here, too: with Alfredsson and Sundin in core leadership positions in Toronto, Karlsson may feel inclined to rejoin his bröders in arms. Rielly's tenured relationship with Dubas stretches over five years and, as noted earlier, is highlighted by the contract extension they both agreed to in 2021.

Can this deal work between the Penguins and the Leafs?

Although bringing in Rielly isn't an upgrade to overall production on the score sheet, it does give Pittsburgh another notable left-handed shot who is capable of playing twenty-plus minutes a night, undeniable north and south speed, puck-moving acumen, and a player who ultimately is younger and hopeful that a change of scenery will lead to recapturing some of his prime as he still has years left in what has so far been a very admirable career.

For Toronto, this could end up being a one-year rental depending on how this season goes. Karlsson will more than likely hit free agency next season and potentially go hunting for the Stanley Cup ring that has eluded him his entire career. There is a scenario where the Leafs profit tremendously off of this deal and offer Karlsson a small extension into his late 30s, but that isn't a concern at this present time, as Chayka is very much operating in the here and now, as seen with the moves he's already made this offseason.

Karlsson's intentions with Pittsburgh beyond this season remain unclear, dating back to his end-of-season exit interview in 2025, when he said, "whatever happens, happens."

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