There has been so much buzz surrounding Erik Karlsson heading to the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the surface, it’s easy to see why. The Leafs could use as much offense from the backend as possible. And Karlsson can certainly deliver some of that.
However, the idea of trading for Karlsson is something that should send shivers down Maple Leafs fans’ spines.
If we were talking about a free-agent signing, that would be one thing. But since we’re talking about a trade, that’s a different animal.
When looking at what the Pittsburgh Penguins would likely want for Karlsson, plus his cap hit, a trade just isn’t worth it.
Yes, Karlsson delivers offense. But that’s about it. He might as well be a forward, as his lax defensive game wouldn’t be much of an asset for Toronto at this point. The Maple Leafs have a glaring need for a solid, two-way defenseman. The Leafs need someone who can play his position and move the puck in the process.
For better or worse, that’s actually what Darren Raddysh brings to the table. Raddysh is a solid NHL defenseman while offering a substantial offensive upside.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Karlsson. He’s never been a shutdown defenseman. And when considering how the Leafs’ blue line is heading, the Leafs need guys they can rely on, especially in the postseason.
Acquisition cost for Karlsson may be prohibitive for Maple Leafs
Penguins GM Kyle Dubas will be looking to fleece an unsuspecting organization. He’ll be looking to take advantage of whoever wants to land Karlsson. And that would be on top of taking on Karlsson’s full cap hit.
But let’s start with the acquisition cost. It wouldn’t be surprising to envisage Dubas asking for a first-round pick. Now, it’s not like he’s going to get it, but that’s where the asking price likely begins. Dubas will also be asking for a high-end prospect.
So, would a deal like a first-rounder and Easton Cowan be worth it?
That’s a deal so wrong on so many levels.
Since Dubas won’t be trading Karlsson for two fifth-round picks, that’ll be pretty much the end of that discussion.
Karlsson’s cap hit is just too much for Toronto
Then, there’s the matter of Karlsson’s cap hit. The Leafs wouldn’t be on the hook for $10 million unless the Penguins were willing to retain some of it.
But would Pittsburgh realistically want to keep some money?
While Karlsson is in the final year of his contract, the Penguins would be willing to hold on to a chunk of his cap hit if the acquiring team is willing to pay up.
That situation brings us back to the previous point. Paying through the nose for a 36-year-old defenseman without much of a defensive upside has to be bonkers.
And even if the Maple Leafs were willing to take on the full cap hit, where are they going to clear up enough space? Who goes out the door?
As you can see, the idea of landing Erik Karlsson, while certainly good in abstract, just doesn’t add up when taking into account the Leafs’ overall situation.
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