As one of the Toronto Maple Leafs best prospects in recent years, Matthew Knies was coming off a strong 2024-25 sophomore campaign in which he recorded 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 78 games played with Toronto. More importantly, Knies was developing into the power forward that the Maple Leafs desperately needed to help balance their prolific lineup.
Entering the 2025-26 season, the role of the 23-year-old forward was expected to increase with long-time superstar Mitch Marner leaving town and starring elsewhere during the past offseason. So how well has Knies performed under such circumstances?
Matthew Knies’ stats
This past season, Knies played primarily on the Maple Leafs top line alongside Auston Matthews for the most past. However, due to the Leafs injury woes, he also ended up seeing some time on the second and even third line to help balance out the lineup at times. In doing so, Knies improved from his numbers from the 2024-25 season, but not by much.
In 79 games of action, the 23-year-old forward registered 23 goals and 43 assists for 66 points. However, he also had the unfortunate distinction to own the team worst plus/minus at -30 when all was said and done. Nevertheless, Knies was one of the top power play producers on the team, ranking third behind William Nylander and John Tavares with 16 points with the man advantage.
Did Knies live up to expectations?
To have one of the best in the game in Matthews as his linemate, one would have expected Knies to have a breakthrough 2025-26 campaign, especially after the departure of Marner. However, the huge jump never materialized and the 23-year-old winger didn’t quite own the ice the way Marner did when he was with Toronto. Especially after seeing his CF% fall to 42%, expected goals rate to 43% and scoring chances rate to 44% last season.
But one thing to keep in mind was the fact that Knies revealed later that he had played with an undisclosed lower-body injury for much of the season. So perhaps his overall effectiveness was significantly impacted by the knee ailment that he was nursing. Nevertheless, as supposedly the new member of the Leafs’ new core four, Toronto will expect more from him going forward.
What do we expect from Knies next season?
Given that Knies will have a clean bill of health heading into 2026-27, Leafs fans can expect two possible outcomes. One would be Knies taking off to the next level and become the official replacement of Marner on the team. The other would be the 23-year-old developing into a key complementary piece, but cannot drive play on his own. For the Maple Leafs sake, they will sure hope more for the former than latter.
In addition, there is actually an outside chance of a third possible outcome. That would be Knies being traded as part of the semi-rebuild by the Maple Leafs, after hearing all of the offseason rumors of him being trade bait. However, if Toronto management actually thought things over, it makes no sense to trade away a young, elite player if they are really considering a retool or rebuild. Because the one of the main objectives for it would be to obtain valuable young assets to help the franchise to future success.
With Knies, the Leafs already know that have a young, workable piece they can build upon and grow. In particular, you wouldn’t have seen teams like the Montreal Canadiens trading Cole Caufield or the Ottawa Senators trading Brady Tkachuk as part of their rebuild at the time. So similarly, the Maple Leafs better hold on to Knies and make him a key part of the franchise’s future.
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