A combination of recent preliminary round results, key tiebreaker scenarios, and the remaining schedule is creating a very real possibility of an early Olympic showdown between hockey powers, one that could see Toronto Maple Leafs stars Auston Matthews and William Nylander face off sooner than expected.
Matthews' Team USA's closer-than-expected 6-3 victory over Denmark in Group C Olympic action on Saturday, combined with Team Sweden and Nylander's position in the Group B bracket, is setting up a potential intriguing game between Leafs' teammates.
Most expected Team USA and Sweden to meet in a later-round collision, but the teams are now tracking toward a marquee clash in a crossover matchup well before the medal round.
Olympic Bracket Could Force Matthews and Nylander Into an Early Clash
James Mirtle of The Athletic provided an in-depth analysis of what could await based on preliminary round action at the Milano Cortina Olympics.
Upon the conclusion of preliminary round games on Sunday, all twelve teams in the Olympic tournament will be ranked one through twelve. The top four teams get a bye to the quarterfinals, while the remaining eight teams have to face each other to qualify among the final eight teams.
Canada and the Americans are currently the only two teams that are undefeated and are tracking to be the top two seeds. Both are heavy favorites in their final games. Canada faces France while the United States takes on Germany.
Canada has scored ten goals while giving up just one through two games, a plus-nine in goal differential. The US has scored eleven goals and given up four to sit at plus-seven. Why is this important?
Group B, where Nylander and Team Sweden reside, saw three teams finish round-robin play with a 2-1 record. The tiebreaker for seeding purposes between Sweden, Finland, and Slovakia is the goal differential in the combined games among those three teams. Sweden's minus-one is the worst of the trio and relegates them to a potential seven seed when preliminary action concludes.
That makes the results from Canada and Team USA's Sunday games critically important. Both teams need to win to secure the top two seeds heading to the elimination portion of the tournament. Of greater importance is securing the top seed, as the number two seed will likely see Sweden in the quarterfinals.
Should that increasingly likely scenario play out, one of the top three gold-medal favorites will exit the tournament in the quarterfinal round without a chance of playing for a medal of any kind. Canada has the inside track on the top spot, already having a two-goal edge in goal differential and playing an easier opponent than the United States for Sunday's final games of Group play.
While Nylander's ongoing injury concerns were an early story at the Olympic Games, and Matthews' leadership has been under the microscope, both narratives will take a back seat to an early elimination-game meeting.
Many expected the United States and Sweden to collide in a high-stakes Olympic matchup, but the growing likelihood is that the showdown will arrive much sooner than anticipated. That would put Maple Leafs' teammates Matthews and Nylander on opposite sides of a critical game far earlier in the tournament than projected, and with more than national pride on the line.
Both stars have faced questions about delivering in the biggest moments, but if this path holds, one will have the chance to flip that narrative and be on the right side of a defining win, even if it comes at his teammate's expense.