Toronto Maple Leafs: Mathematical Probabilities of All Playoff Matchups

The Expected winners from their respective brackets move on to Round 2.

Eastern Conference

Between the Canes and Sabres, Carolina is expected to prevail. They have a 60-percent chance at the second round. They can expect to play the Devils who have a 51-percent chance of escaping the Rangers.

This means the Hurricanes would go head-to-head with the Devils. Carolina would have the benefit of home ice to start that series.

The Bruins have an 87-percent probability to make the second round. In fact, they have the best odds in the NHL to make it out of the opening round. They’ll be looking at facing off against either the Lightning or Maple Leafs.

The odds are in the favour of the team who gets home ice advantage. Unless things change, that’s currently the Lightning. They have a 52-percent chance of beating the Maple Leafs. The Buds, on the other hand, have a 45-percent chance of being victorious.

This is not what Leafs’ fans want to read after having such a long postseason success drought. In order to help the team’s chances when the games matter most, Toronto would benefit from racking up regular season points and put themselves in a better position to make the second round.

Western Conference

The Golden Knights have a 33-percent chance of making it to Round 2. They can expect to play one of the Kraken, Kings, or Oilers. They have 26, 25, and 23-percent probabilities respectively of moving on.

The other bracket looks as if it’s going to be Colorado hosting Winnipeg. The Avs have a 30-percent chance of moving on compared to the Jets’ 29-percent probability. The next greatest odds for this matchup is actually still with a battle between these two franchises. The difference would just be who gets home ice advantage.