Toronto Maple Leafs: Mathematical Probabilities of All Playoff Matchups

The Western Conference doesn’t have as clear a picture as the East.

Pacific Division

The Vegas Golden Knights have had a strong season and it appears as though they’ll benefit to the tune of clinching the top seed in the Pacific Division. They have 45-percent odds at it.

There’s a log jam to see who will play the Golden Knights. Both the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild share a 14-percent chance at it. The Edmonton Oilers aren’t far off with a 13-percent chance. The Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, and Los Angeles Kings all have a 10-percent chance to play Vegas.

Earning the second seed in the Pacific is very much up for grabs. While the Kings look poised to take it with 26-percent odds, the Kraken have 24-percent odds and the Oilers 22-percent.

Whichever team doesn’t clinch second should expect to play the club that does. That means, there’s a good chance that the Oilers and Kings will be seeing each other to start the playoffs with Los Angeles having home-ice advantage.

Central Division

The top seed in the Central Division looks to be the defending Stanley Cup Champions, the Colorado Avalanche. They have a 42-percent chance to finish first in the division. Their opponent isn’t clear. The Oilers have 16-percent, Flames 13-percent, Kraken 13-percent, Kings 12-percent, and the Wild 12-percent odds to see the Avs in Round 1. If the Oilers and Kings are occupied with one another then it looks like the Flames or Kraken may be headed to Colorado.

The Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars are battling for the second and third seeds in the Central Division. They both have 27-percent odds of grabbing the second seed. Expect these two clubs to face off when the playoffs begin.