Toronto Maple Leafs Start Is a Best Case Scenario

The Toronto Maple Leafs record to begin the 2021 season is nothing short of spectacular.

With a 7-2-1 record, the Toronto Maple Leafs are leading not only the Canadian Division, but also the entire NHL (tied with Washington and Philadelphia).  By virtue of their six regulation wins, the Leafs are technically the NHL’s best team.

The crazy thing about the Leafs is that last year they played amazing hockey once Sheldon Keefe took over, and if not for a spell where both their best and second best defenseman were injured, they easily would have avoided the play-in round of the playoffs.  Speaking of which, the Leafs played incredible but faced record setting goaltending (which, it’s weird no one ever talks about that, as if getting “goalied” wasn’t a regular NHL occurrence).

And yet, despite their play during the aforementioned periods, the Leafs got bad results.  This year? Complete opposite.  Somewhat middling to awful play overall, and yet, a near record pace has been set out.

I’m not complaining, I’m just pointing out the fact that hockey is a confusing game to analyze because goalies work pretty hard to make sure that the best team doesn’t always win.

Right now, having played ten one-goal games in a row, the Leafs are somewhere between fortunate and extremely lucky to have the record they currently have.

A Best Case Scenario

The Leafs record right now is a best case scenario, and if they continue to play like they have been, they won’t be the best team in hockey, I am sorry to say.

However, they are highly unlikely to keep playing the way they have been.

Freddie Andersen is currently playing 25 points below his career save percentage.  Auston Matthews, the NHL’s best 5v5 goal scorer, has scored twice at even-strength so far (three times, but one went off his foot).  John Tavares – also one of the NHL’s best goal scorers – has zero goals 5v5 in the first ten games.

So even if the Leafs luck for one-goal games slides a bit (and it will) they can count on an improved starting goalie, and a lot more 5v5 goals from their best players to counteract that inevitable situation. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Keep in mind too that the Leafs began the season with four games in six nights, then didn’t even get back-to-back days off until now.  That not only makes them  tired, but it puts a cramp on the team’s ability to practice, which, consider the shortened camp, lack of pre-season games and excessive roster turnover, makes a massive difference.

Add in some early injuries and the Toronto Maple Leafs current record starts to seem like a minor miracle.  A best case scenario, if you will.