Why this version of the Toronto Maple Leafs will succeed in the playoffs

Toronto Maple Leafs fans hear it every year.  THIS is the season that the team will make a long playoff run.  THIS time it’s different.  THIS team is built better than the one from last year.

Despite having some pretty impressive regular season records over the last 8 years, the fact remains that the Toronto Maple Leafs have won only a single playoff series since 2004.  What would make an otherwise sane person have any confidence that playoff success is just around the corner?

If we look at the many causes of the annual spring flameout, it almost always seems to come down to one of two things – either the other team’s goalie outplays whoever is in net for Toronto, or the high-flying regular season offense dries up as the Maple Leaf stars disappear.

So what about this year?

What Will Drive Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Success?

Last season, Ilya Samsonov was just not good enough against Boston.  Joseph Woll was good enough, but not healthy enough.  Same goalies, same story in 2022-2023 versus Florida.  The year before that, Jack Campbell had a fantastic regular season (2.64 GAA, .914 SV% (stats from hockeydb.com)) but just a mediocre playoff (.315 GAA, .897 SV%) against Tampa Bay.    

This year, the goaltending picture is a little different for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Instead of risking it all on the ups and downs of a single guy (Samsonov, Cambell, or Freddy Andersen), the plan was to instill the promising Joseph Woll as the #1 tender, with newly acquired Anthony Stolarz as a close-behind #1A.

Woll has played well whenever he’s been healthy, but hasn’t been able to stay injury-free long enough to truly have a large impact on the team’s fortunes.  Stolarz has carved out some good numbers as a career backup (2.61 GAA, .916 SV%), and won a Stanley Cup last year with Florida, but hasn’t had the opportunity to be the top guy on any of his teams.

If Toronto can spread the workload somewhat evenly, that should help to prevent either keeper from wearing down, and will hopefully enable both to enter the playoffs healthy next spring.  Also, it increases the chances of at least one guy getting hot and carrying the team (as we seem to see every year with other teams).

With the arrival of new Head Coach Craig Berube, many wondered how a team known for its offensive prowess would react to a coach who prefers hard-nosed hockey over finesse.  So far, the results have been mixed, but it appears the players are learning to play a new style.  This style doesn't look that good so far, as the Leafs have somehow had even less secondary scoring, and no longer ever appear to rush the puck.

Berube has his players playing a simpler, north-south type of hockey.  Finish your checks, forecheck, get pucks to the net, block shots on defense, and work relentlessly.  This may not be the best style for a team with so many high-end players, but we shall sees.

It hasn’t been perfect so far, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have already put forth a few bad games, but old habits sometimes die hard.  One thing that Berube isn’t afraid to do is to hold players accountable. 

If the Leafs truly buy into an effort-based style of play, it can only bode well for them in the playoffs, but so far, the main difference seems to the goaltending. If Stolarz and Woll can keep this up, a team with Matthews and Marner will be very difficult to contain in a short series.