4 Reasons for Early Optimism in the Toronto Maple Leafs Off-Season
It was over 2 weeks ago that the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs, and the sting of failure lessens just a little more with each passing day. Despite the fact that they lost in the first round, in 7 games, to the Boston Bruins, yet again, there is some truth to the adage that “time heals all wounds”.
Most long-time Toronto Maple Leafs fans are already looking ahead, not behind, because that’s what we do.
We have many decades of practice so we’re pretty damn good at it by now.
So, between cutting the grass, jealously following the handful of NHL teams still playing, sparking up the barbecue, and discovering our shorts and t-shirts somehow shrunk over the winter, many of us have been quietly discussing what’s got us looking forward to October.
Despite the negativity surrounding this franchise due to its baffling inability to make any noise in the playoffs, there really are quite a few reasons to be optimistic about the coming season.
Why Does Next Year Look Good for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
This optimism in general is crafted from a combination of “addition by subtraction” (saying goodbye to people that no longer fit) and “addition by addition” (saying hello to new faces that should bring about positive change in an organization that desperately needs some).
Every team goes through this off-season process every year, to some extent, but the changes coming to the Toronto Maple Leafs somehow feel more significant this summer. Being eternal optimists, I suppose we feel that way most years, but maybe THIS year it will be justified.
I’m sure there will be more details emerging as the summer goes on to give some vision to a fan’s blind faith, but in the meantime here are 4 reasons to be optimistic if you are a Toronto Maple Leafs fan.
A Much-Needed Coaching Change
I’m a fan of Sheldon Keefe. I think he’s a good systems coach, a good person, and someone who cares about his players. That type of coach can have a lot of success with many NHL teams. Unfortunately, the Toronto Maple Leafs are apparently not one of those teams.
Despite a huge amount of regular season success (to the extent of a 212-97-40 coaching record, per hockey-reference.com), the Leafs devolved into a different team in the playoffs, and won just a single playoff series under Keefe’s tutelage.
The criticisms (justifiably so) were that Toronto’s players crumbled in the face of tougher playoff hockey, in-your-face checking, and do-or-die pressure. Keefe couldn’t find a way to motivate his top players, or find strategic solutions that would enable those top players to score like they do in the regular season.
Thus, the departure of Keefe and the arrival of his replacement, Craig Berube. Berube was an enforcer-type player in his NHL career, amassing 3149 penalty minutes over 1054 games, and has ties to the Toronto Maple Leafs organization, having played 40 games as a Leaf in the 1991-92 season.
As a coach, Berube guided the St. Louis Blues to a surprise Stanley Cup victory in 2018-19. His coaching style is much different than Keefe’s, relying on motivation more than x’s and o’s. He is emotional behind the bench, direct with his players, and is known for his great communication.
I wouldn’t accuse any of the Toronto Maple Leafs of “not trying” during the playoffs, but it’s a fact that the playoffs have been an annual exercise in failure for this group. Something different has to be done to find a way to help these players find an extra gear and find the back of the net like they do when it isn't the playoffs.
I’m looking forward to seeing what a bit of “tough love” can do for this roster, and Craig Berube is just the guy to provide it.
An Infusion of Young Talent
The Toronto Maple Leafs got a good look at some of their future stars this past season, and the future looks pretty good.
We already knew from last year’s playoffs that Matthew Knies might be a special talent, and he confirmed that with a strong rookie campaign, putting up 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games.
Knies was even better in the playoffs, playing with confidence and physicality. The sky’s the limit for this young power forward, as he seems to get better by the game, learning how to use his size, adjusting to the speed of the NHL, and figuring out how to best utilize the talents of his linemates.
Similar to Knies, we had already seen a glimpse of what goaltender Joseph Woll could bring to the table prior to last season. In 2023-24, Woll got into 25 regular season games, plus 3 more in the playoffs, showing that he has the talent and mindset to be a #1 goalie in the NHL. He has struggled with injuries, however, and must work to keep himself healthy in order to prove he’s able the handle the amount of playing time that comes with the starter’s role.
We also got a brief look at Fraser Minten last October, who made the Leafs roster out of training camp for a 4 game stint, before heading back to the WHL for more seasoning. Minten held his own against NHL competition, and will have a good chance of sticking permanently with the big club this year.
Another junior star with a chance at playing at least some games next year is OHL regular season and playoff MVP, Easton Cowan of the London Knights. Drafted 28th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs last year, most observers were very surprised that Cowan went anywhere near that high. But he’s silenced any and all critics with an outstanding campaign, and will push to make the roster of a team always needing cheap, talented players.
It’s possible we may also get our first NHL looks at Toronto Marlies players Topi Niemela (a right shot defenseman) and goalie Denis Hildeby, who backed up a couple of NHL games, but didn’t see any ice time.
A Resolution to the Core Four Issue
Some people may not see this as an issue, but the much-vaunted Core Four experience in Toronto has been a failure. There has been much consternation about allocating so much salary cap to the team’s top 4 forwards, but I don’t see it as a salary cap issue.
The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t had trouble affording complementary talent, although there’s a good argument to be made that they’ve had issues signing the right players. No, the real problem is that the Core Four have failed to rise to the occasion in the playoffs every single year they’ve been together.
Some of them have individually had decent playoff series, but as a group, their regular season scoring exploits dry up like an Arizona puddle in the middle of summer. Other teams score goals in the playoffs (see Edmonton, Florida), so why do the Leafs struggle every game to put more than 1 or 2 on the scoresheet?
There’s a growing likelihood we won’t have to ask that question any longer. Statements from management indicate that the desire is there to break up the Core Four. The most likely player to be moved is Mitch Marner, for a few reasons. First, his contract expires after the coming season, and the Leafs may not want to offer the kind of pay increase he will demand. Second, he has been designated as the “whipping boy” by disgruntled fans looking to vent their frustrations, due to Marner’s perceived lack of effort.
Finally, there are rumours emerging that Marner may be open to waiving his no-move contract clause for the right situation. It would be understandable if he’s had enough of the criticism and pressure associated with being a Toronto Maple Leaf.
If those rumours have any truth to them, expect GM Brad Treliving to work ceaselessly to move Marner for either a real NHL goalie (Juuse Saros, anyone?), or perhaps a top-end defenseman and/or a more physical scorer upfront.
It’s almost impossible to really know who might be available in exchange for Marner, but there’s a good chance Treliving finds a trade partner and the Leafs lineup looks a lot different next season. In the post-season, at least, there’s nowhere to go but up.
The Leafs Blueline Has to Be Better Next Year…….Right?
I mean, it just has to be.
The Toronto Maple Leafs defense corps this year was held together with duct tape, Gorilla Glue, a wing and a prayer. It bent this way and that way, but somehow, it never really broke. Kudos to many of the Toronto blueliners who played above expectations.
Returning next year will be Morgan Rielly, who didn’t have quite as good of a season as he did in 2022-23, but still displayed strong leadership as the team’s #1 D. Jake McCabe solidified his position as a gritty, fairly reliable player with a lot of heart, and he added some scoring as well (a career high 28 pts).
Simon Benoit earned a place in the hearts of Toronto fans with his rough-and-tumble style of play, always putting out full effort, and not making as many mistakes as we all expected from him, especially after a rough training camp. He was signed to a 3 year, $4.05M contract extension during the season.
Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie played some good hockey for the Leafs, but it wasn’t in 2023-24. It’s hard to imagine either one being part of the team next season. Timothy Liljegren’s time may be up as well, as he just hasn’t been able to put it all together on a consistent basis, and may be on the trade block. Then again, trading effective, cheap 25 year-old defenseman has never been a recipe for success.
Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson are both UFA’s, and it’s likely that at least one goes elsewhere next season. Conor Timmins has one year left on a contract that pays him $1.1M annually, but he played only 25 games, so his status with the team is uncertain at best.
What this all means is that we’ll likely see between 4-6 new faces on the Toronto Maple Leafs blue line next season. Some of them will be depth pieces destined to start with the Toronto Marlies, but with the inevitable injuries on the average NHL roster, those depth players can end up playing significant NHL minutes.
The new faces will likely include 6’6” Cade Webber, a Carolina Hurricanes draft pick acquired by Toronto in March for a 6th round pick in 2026. We’ll also see some of Topi Niemela (as previously mentioned).
Most intriguing, however, will be seeing who Brad Treliving will be able to acquire either through trades (possibly in a Mitch Marner deal) or via free agent signings. Treliving failed to address the gaping holes on defense last summer, and it’s hard to believe he’ll make that mistake again now.
Even though the new GM is only beginning his second year in Toronto, he’s already on the hot seat next to his boss, President Brendan Shanahan. New MLSE boss Keith Pelley has undoubtedly given Shanahan (and thus Treliving) a short leash, and doing nothing is not an option this summer.
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Let the fireworks begin!