Atlantic Division Outlook
There are 28 teams that, for the most part, don't matter to Toronto this season. The Leafs play in the most competitive division in the NHL, and playoff success will be determined by how they match up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, and the reigning champs, the Florida Panthers.
Despite losing Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev this offseason, Tampa will still be a tough out. Kucherov, Point, Guentzal, Cirelli, Paul, Hedman, the shutdown pair of Cernak and McDonagh, and still a top 4 goalie in the league in Vasilevskiy, they will be a very competitive team. Likely, however, fourth ranked of these four Atlantic Division rivals.
Florida lost a number of pieces after their cup win, with three of those guys now wearing leafs jerseys, and Montour in a Kraken jersey. But their top 9 is still intact, the pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad still intact, and of course Bobrovsky still owning the crease after an insane playoff run. It's likely that they start the season slow, after 2 consecutive trips to the finals and 2 short offseasons, but its a safe bet that they'll be a well-oiled machine again come April.
Boston will continue to be a challenge. They have a top 5 goalie in Swayman, a massive d-core centered around McAvoy, Zadorov, Lindholm, and Carlo, a big, physical, and defensively sound forward group, and a top 3 goal-scorer in David Pastranak.
These three teams are who Brad Treliving & Co constructed this Toronto roster to compete against. I think the Leafs are now bigger, more physically coached, better defensively, and better in net to compete in the Atlantic. I also think the Leafs are a much faster and more skilled team than Florida, Boston, or Tampa.
Factor in the personnel changes, a cup-hangover for Florida, and the right moves at the deadline, the conditions seem primed for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the division and being the last Atlantic team standing in the playoffs.
(salary cap information from puckpedia.com, statistics from statsmuse.com).