Why This is the Year for the Toronto Maple Leafs : 4 Reasons for Optimism
Reasons for optimism why this year will actually be different for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The deadline to become cap-compliant prior to the opening of the 2024-25 season passed at 5pm on October 7th. While many were speculating trades to occur, which still may happen in the near future, the Toronto Maple Leafs opted to use IR and LTIR space to finalize their roster.
Connor Dewar, Jani Hakenpaa, Calle Jarnkrok, and Dakota Mermis all sidelined with ailments, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now $1.00 below the $88M salary cap ceiling to begin the year.
Despite the obvious need for another centre to bolster the middle-six forward group, this Toronto Maple Leafs team looks good on paper, and seems ready to battle for Atlantic Divison Title.
Here are my four reasons to be optimistic about the Leafs this year.
Why This is the Year for the Toronto Maple Leafs : 4 Reasons for Optimism
Goaltending
Ilya Samsonov was terrible to begin the season last year. Over his 19 starts between October 11 and Jan 31, Sammy put up an .878 save percentage with a 3.36 goals against average.
Conversely, Joseph Woll last year put up a .907 sv % and a 2.94 GAA over his 25 appearances, while Anthony Stolarz put up a .925 sv % and a 2.03 GAA over his 27 appearances for Florida (best in the NHL in both categories for goalies with a minimum of 25 games played).
This change in goaltending alone should win the Leafs more games than last year.
Special Teams
Special teams make or break playoff runs. The Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill was ranked 25th last season with a kill rate of 76.9%. This preseason, the Leafs killed 20 of 21 penalties taken. If the Leafs can continue this trend and finish with a top ranked penalty kill, this too should win them more games than last year.
The Leafs finished last season with a 7th ranked powerplay with a success rate of 23.9%, despite a brutal stretch in the month of March, only cashing in on 9.1% of their chances. This preseason, the Leafs capitalized on 6 of 23 powerplay chances, good for a 26% success rate, which would rank top 5 in the league last season.
It seems special teams was a focus this offseason, and it's paying off early.
A Familiarity with Winning
Craig Berube took the last place St. Louis Blues on January 1, 2019, and led them to a Stanley Cup victory in June. Lane Lambert won the cup the year before on the bench with the Washington Capitals. Marc Savard, though sidelined with a career-ending concussion, was on the Boston Bruins roster for their cup win in 2011.
OEL, Steven Lorentz, Anthony Stolarz just won with Florida last year. Max Pacioretty has played in a Western Conference Finals with Vegas. Chris Tanev played in the Western Conference Finals last year with Dallas. Every one of the new additions for the Toronto Maple Leafs has first hand experience with deep playoff runs, and what it takes to get there. Shout out Brad Treliving for injecting this experience with winning into the Leafs culture.
Atlantic Division Outlook
There are 28 teams that, for the most part, don't matter to Toronto this season. The Leafs play in the most competitive division in the NHL, and playoff success will be determined by how they match up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, and the reigning champs, the Florida Panthers.
Despite losing Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev this offseason, Tampa will still be a tough out. Kucherov, Point, Guentzal, Cirelli, Paul, Hedman, the shutdown pair of Cernak and McDonagh, and still a top 4 goalie in the league in Vasilevskiy, they will be a very competitive team. Likely, however, fourth ranked of these four Atlantic Division rivals.
Florida lost a number of pieces after their cup win, with three of those guys now wearing leafs jerseys, and Montour in a Kraken jersey. But their top 9 is still intact, the pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad still intact, and of course Bobrovsky still owning the crease after an insane playoff run. It's likely that they start the season slow, after 2 consecutive trips to the finals and 2 short offseasons, but its a safe bet that they'll be a well-oiled machine again come April.
Boston will continue to be a challenge. They have a top 5 goalie in Swayman, a massive d-core centered around McAvoy, Zadorov, Lindholm, and Carlo, a big, physical, and defensively sound forward group, and a top 3 goal-scorer in David Pastranak.
These three teams are who Brad Treliving & Co constructed this Toronto roster to compete against. I think the Leafs are now bigger, more physically coached, better defensively, and better in net to compete in the Atlantic. I also think the Leafs are a much faster and more skilled team than Florida, Boston, or Tampa.
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Factor in the personnel changes, a cup-hangover for Florida, and the right moves at the deadline, the conditions seem primed for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the division and being the last Atlantic team standing in the playoffs.
(salary cap information from puckpedia.com, statistics from statsmuse.com).