The Toronto Maple Leafs entered NHL free agency with more available salary cap space than they had in years, thanks to the expiring contracts of long-time key players Mitch Marner and John Tavares.
The twenty-plus million dollars of space the Maple Leafs had available has quickly dissipated. General manager Brad Treliving has had a busy offseason thus far.
The resigning of Tavares and restricted free agent Matthew Knies were Treliving's most noteworthy moves to date. The combined AAV of their new deals will account for over $12 million toward the team's cap this year.
Trades for Matias Maccelli ($3.425 million AAV) and Dakota Joshua ($3.25 million AAV) added approximately $7 million to the Leafs' ledger.
All told, the transactions have currently left Toronto with just under $3 million of available salary cap space. The Leafs have yet to add an impact player to replace the departed Marner.
Treliving previously stated that it is a goal of his, so when should fans expect that to happen? Let's take a deep dive into the Leafs' salary cap situation and see when a consequential trade might occur.
Is a Leafs' Trade Imminent?
While not completely tied to the cap, Treliving and the Maple Leafs would have to move out some contracts to add an established player with a sizeable contract or give something up to a trade partner for them to sustain salary.
Players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Max Domi are most often mentioned as trade candidates, but there is a minimal market for their services. Reports suggest defenseman Morgan Rielly has been approached by the Leafs to waive his no-movement clause for a potential trade.
Moving Rielly and his $7.5 million AAV would allow the addition of a sizeable contract in return, but the longest-serving Leaf has declined the request. Defenseman Brandon Carlo's name has also been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, but the Leafs just acquired him at last year's trade deadline. Trading away a defenseman for a forward also weakens the team's defensive depth.
Another hurdle for the Maple Leafs pulling off a trade is the calendar. Most big-name players who are candidates to be traded are likely to be kept by their current club until next season plays out. Currently, most teams have settled rosters. There might be some action during the NHL preseason, but most teams will be content to play out the first half of the 2025-2026 season before deciding if they are sellers.
By being patient, the Leafs also buy time to evaluate their roster. Playing out most of the coming year before making a significant move allows them to assess the play of prospects such as Easton Cowan and Dennis Hildeby.
Both will be key figures in any future decisions about the team's lineup. Does Cowan show he can be a top-nine, two-way, productive NHL player? Can Hildeby handle regular NHL goaltending duties? If the answer is yes to either or both questions, the Maple Leafs will have plenty of trade options.
Waiting until well into next season before making a big move also allows Treliving and coach Craig Berube to gauge the roster and where the team has depth to trade from. Marner's exit is a noteworthy loss, but the Leafs have numerous roster strengths and don't need to rush to find his replacement.
Leafs Must Keep an Eye on Their Long-Term Options
Looking ahead to the 2026-2027 season, the Maple Leafs are projected to have over $24 million in cap space when the NHL's cap limit reaches $104 million. Treliving and the Leafs must keep that space available for what potentially awaits.
There is a potential unrestricted free-agent bonanza during the summer of 2026. The list of prospective UFAs is mouth-watering. The biggest name on that list is Connor McDavid. Others include Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Ovechkin, Cale Makar, and Anze Kopitar.
Many of the players scheduled for unrestricted free agency have been with only one franchise in their career, and are likely to be resigned by their current team (Ovechkin if he doesn't retire, Kopitar, Makar). There are, however, a handful of players that are intriguing possibilities for the Leafs.
The New York Islanders may not keep captain Anders Lee and decide to go in a new direction. The veteran Lee may want to play for a contender as his career winds down. Toronto is rumored to be interested.
Jason Robertson and Martin Necas are names that would fit with Toronto. Both are proven top-six players and would help replace Marner. Playing with his brother, Nick-currently a restricted free agent, could be a convincing attraction to Toronto.
The ultimate UFA of 2026 is McDavid. It may be a while before his contract situation is settled as he heads into the last year of his deal. During his media availability after the Stanley Cup Final, the NHL's best player stated he would not rush his decision.
For as long as McDavid is not signed to an extension with the Edmonton Oilers, every team in the league will want to keep space available to lure his talents to their city. For the Maple Leafs, they need to prepare for the possibility that the allure of playing near his hometown is enough to entice him to sign in Toronto, however remote the likelihood.
Don't expect an impending impact trade for the Toronto Maple Leafs. There are too many reasons why it's in their best interest to wait.