What Is Obvious About the Toronto Maple Leafs After 8.5% of the Schedule
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-3 after seven games, and some things are becoming obvious.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are off to an OK, so-so, mediocre start to the 2024-25 NHL season.
After a frustrating opening night against the Montreal Canadiens, the Toronto Maple Leafs played a series of strong games and arguably deserved to have a better record than 4-2 after they soundly defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night.
However, they traveled to Columbus and played one of the single worst games of the Auston Matthews Era.
The team, under new coach Craig Berube, looks a lot like the team recently coached by Sheldon Keefe, only with Chris Tanev in the lineup. Tanev has been a revelation, but all of the problems we foresaw in the summer continue to plague the Leafs.
They don't have enough NHL centres, their lineup is deep by name-brand standards, but with John Tavares on the 3rd line, the Core Four looks more like the Core Three and the team lacks star power.
Tyler Bertuzzi wasn't replaced, and we are seeing Berube going back to some of the things Keefe had already given up on (Domi at centre, Matthews and Marner paired together).
Already we can see the team doesn't perform against weak opponents, and their stars have a tendency to turn invisible at times. Was depth scoring addressed? Not with the fourth line being an offensive black-hole it wasn't.
On the bright side, Tanev - when he's not risking injury - has been amazing, as has Anthony Stolarz, who has helped keep the disastrous injury to Joseph Woll from being a bigger deal.
Here are out thoughts on the team after we have played almost nine percent (!) of the 2024-25 NHL schedule.
What Is Obvious About the Toronto Maple Leafs After 8.5% of the Schedule
1. Centres are a problem
The Leafs have been using Max Domi as their second-line centre, and John Tavares on the third line. This is silly and won't / can't last - Tavares is just simply on another level than Max Domi and can only play behind him for so long.
It hurts the team to have Domi getting any minutes at centre. He's had a good start to the year, so I do have to give him credit for performing well, but his entire career says that he can't effectively play centre-ice minutes and be anything more than a replacement player.
That said, John Tavares might be better as a winger now that he's approaching middle age. When two of your three top centres are better as wingers, you have a problem.
Furthermore, Pontus Holmberg has been terrible and is not ready to be a top-nine player on an competitive NHL team. The Leafs regular fourth line centre, David Kampf, is not only the NHL's most expensive fourth liner, he's already been a healthy scratch.
For a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup and whose blue-line is already too old, the Toronto Maple Leafs centre-ice position is a mess.
2. Tyler Bertuzzi is missed and hasn't been replaced
Tyler Bertuzzi scored about 20 goals last year, but it's not just his offense that is missed. Bertuzzi was a play-driving monster who made everyone he played with better.
The Leafs were correct to choose Domi over Bertuzzi if they believed that what Domi did last year with Auston Matthews was the real deal. Since they are not even trying that this year, at least not so far, the choice seems pretty dumb in retrospect.
Bertuzzi is missed and wasn't replaced. The fact is, for everything Chris Tanev brings to the table, the Leafs aren't getting the improvement they should because the cost for bringing aboard was losing a player they have very little hope of replacing.
3. Depth Scoring remains an issue
With Bertuzzi off the second line, the Leafs don't have the same top-of-the-lineup scoring power they had last year, especially with Tavares on the third line.
And while theoretically Tavares and Robertson can bring some nice depth scoring to the third line, the problem is that Simon Benoit is a shut-down defender who doesn't play shut-down minutes, which means he plays with the guys who need to provide depth scoring, but he is so bad at moving the puck that he prevents his team from playing any offense when he's on the ice.
Another problem is the fourth line. David Kampf and Ryan Reaves bring negative scoring ability to the team, and so they can't very well address their depth issues when they have one line and one defensive pairing that pretty much make it impossible to score.
It's nice to see Knies and McMann potentially breaking out, but they'll be lucky to equal what Bertuzzi and Tavares were bringing to the top of the lineup, meaning that the net offense here is worse than it was last year, when it got them eliminated from the playoffs.
4. Defense is too old, lacks a high-end option
This is obvious to anyone who enjoyed the mini OEL renaissance that we saw to start the season. Ekman-Larsson is 33 and unlikely to continue playing as a high-end defender, but his early season performance highlighted exactly what the Leafs have been missing for so long.
OEL was driving play, putting up points, racking up shots, and even throwing big hits. He looked 23 for the season's first week. And hey, who knows, maybe he's that rare player who can reverse his decline and have a solid career in his 30s.
But he for sure will not continue to perform like a number-one defenseman. The Leafs however, desperately need one. If you could push everyone on the blue-line down one spot, this would be a great blue-line.
As it is, it's old, lacks high-end talent, is an extreme injury risk, and its only going to get worse because the team is on the verge of re-signing Jake McCabe, even though it's extremely dumb to invest long-term in four defenseman whose ages are 31-35.
5. Robertson-McMann-Knies is extremely exciting
These three guys could potentially give the Leafs the best left-side in all of hockey. Robertson looks dangersous almost every game, and McMann and Knies have looked even better than he has.
All in all, the play of these three forwards is extremely exciting for the Leafs and likely the best thing to happen so far this season. If one or more of them can turn into a star, the Leafs will be much better off.
Three goals each for McMann and Knies is impressive so far, and the growth of these three guys is what gives the Leafs a reason to believe this team can overcome its problems and win some playoff games.
6. Domi needs to be on the wing
Never has something been so obvious and yet so impossible. How do you move Domi away from centre ice when he's producing and the team is so thin at centre otherwise?
People keep calling the Leafs deep, but no team with Max Domi as the second-line centre can be said to be deep. Trying Nylander or Marner at centre is really something the Leafs need to consider. For now, with Domi playing well, it's fine. But long-term, this is going to hurt them as Domi has no history of winning his minutes in such a prominent role.
7. Ryan Reaves is unplayable
The Leafs are already losing 3-0 during his minutes. He hasn't been that bad yet, but he's pretty bad even at his best, and he's only going to get worse from here.
Not only will the Leafs lose Reaves' minutes, but they won't be able to solve their depth scoring issues as long as he's on the team. Berube is an ex-enforcer and probably loves the guy, and Treliving is the one who gave him the league's most embarassing contract.
Odds of the Leafs making the smart play here do not look.
8. The power-play is a disgrace
3 goals in the first seven games of the season, 3 for 26, and ranked 26th in the NHL. I shudder to think what the power-play stats would be if you included the playoffs from last year or the last month of the season.
The Leafs power-play is just stale. It needs to be torn down and re-assembled. Considering the players they have, this has been a joke. It likely rights itself in time, but enough is enough here.
9. The Joseph Woll bet was ill-advised
Look, it's not going to matter as long as Anthony Stolarz keeps crushing it, but the minute he turns into a pumpkin is the minute people start talking about the team getting a new GM.
The fact is, when you are faced with not only Auston Matthews' prime, but the fact he hasn't done anything in the spring in eight straight seasons, the easiest and most obvious thing to do would be to pay anything to pair him with an elite goalie.
The Leafs new this, they tried to do this, and they failed. They might get lucky on Stolarz and Woll, but 50% of that bet is already looking really, really bad.
10. Marner and Matthews can't play together
When he doesn't feel like he has to pass the puck to Matthews every single play, Mitch Marner is a 40 goal scorer in his own right with an MVP season waiting to happen. The sooner they are split up at 5v5 and on the PP, the sooner the Leafs will become real contenders.
11. Simon Benoit and Conor Timmins is among the worst 3rd pairings in the NHL
Everyone knows this, and the fact that this is a pairing and the Leafs lack a true number-one defenseman is the main thing that will prevent them from ascending to the top of the league. Of course, the team is well aware and likely working to fix this as we speak.
12. Its probably not that good if you're only 4-3 and your starting goalie has a .940 save percentage
The problem here is one of mathematics. No goalie can maintain that level of play, and sucks to know that you didn't pad your record more while he was doing it.
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Of course, Stolarz is perfectly capable of keeping it up, it's just as Leafs fans, we really don't expect him too!