The entire Mitch Marner departure from the Toronto Maple Leafs continues to generate discussion. It will be one of those topics that could remain a talking point among Leafs fans for a generation.
While there’s no need to relitigate the matter (Marner left because he wanted to get paid and away from Toronto), it’s a worthwhile thought experiment to wonder what would have happened if Marner had re-signed with the Maple Leafs last summer.
First, let’s assume that former GM Brad Treliving found some way to assure Marner that we could have had the security he felt he needed. Perhaps having a permanent Mi6 detail would have achieved that aim.
Second, let’s also assume the Leafs would have been able to come up with a deal similar to the eight-year, $96 million contract the Golden Knights gave him.
Based on those two assumptions, it’s easy to figure out where the situation would have gone. Yes, Craig Berube would have had his “emotional leader” with him. But it really wouldn’t have changed much on the ice.
Marner and Auston Matthews might have had strong offensive seasons. But the duo would have been unable to overcome the loss of Chris Tanev and the shoddy goaltending that the team got this past season.
The overall number of injuries would have only made matters worse, leaving the burden of scoring on Marner and Matthews. But then again, would the duo have been enough to salvage the season for the Buds?
It’s unlikely, as the uber-competitive Eastern Conference would have made it extremely difficult for the Leafs to limp into the playoffs. And even if they somehow managed to squeak in, it’s doubtful that Marner’s postseason ghost would have been enough to get the Maple Leafs out of the first round.
Had Marner and Matthews somehow willed the Leafs into a playoff spot, this offseason’s outcome might have been radically different.
Keeping Marner would have likely meant no Gavin McKenna for Maple Leafs
Regular-season Marner would have been good enough to keep the Leafs on the fringe of the postseason race. The team would have finished on the outside looking in, but nowhere near the bottom five. That situation would have meant that the team’s first-round pick would have gone to the Boston Bruins.
It would have also meant that Gavin McKenna would be planning his NHL future in another city. Unless the Leafs somehow still managed to finish in the bottom five with Marner aboard, it would have been extremely difficult for the Leafs to have finished that low.
Ultimately, re-signing Marner would have led Toronto to tack on an albatross to its cap structure. A playoff miss would have likely led to so much discontent from Marner’s camp that they would have had to trade him anyway. As we have seen with the Dylan Larkin trade request, Marner might have asked out. That situation would have led to GM Brad Treliving (yes, he would still be the GM) to find a partner willing to take Marner on. Craig Berube would then be trying to figure out how to make up for the loss of Marner ahead of next season.
None of that happened, of course. So, now we look forward to the Gavin McKenna era in Toronto, one potentially filled with the success Marner never achieved.
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