In 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs had landed the first overall pick after the Great Tanking. The first phase of the Shanaplan went as intended, giving the Toronto Maple Leafs an opportunity to draft a franchise player.
The official story, of course, was the Leafs taking Auston Matthews first overall. The Leafs now have their captain and franchise player. Things went extremely well for Toronto despite the lack of playoff success.
But leading up to the draft, there was plenty of speculation about the Leafs selecting a Finnish winger named Patrik Laine over Matthews. Some analysts believed that Laine was a more polished goal scorer than Matthews.
While both were the same age, the chatter was that the Leafs would be better off with a high-flying winger than a center.
In the background, the Winnipeg Jets had their fingers crossed, hoping the Maple Leafs would take Laine and not Matthews. The Tanking, of course, was designed for Matthews, not Laine.
But what if the Maple Leafs had listened to some of the pundits and taken Patrik Laine instead? It would have been an interesting twist in NHL history.
Firstly, there’s no telling if Laine’s career would have been different in Toronto than in Winnipeg. It’s tough to envision Laine becoming Toronto’s franchise player and captain. As we saw in Winnipeg, he had one 40-goal season, and then never really got back to that elite level.
After moving to Columbus, Laine struggled to find his goal-scoring touch. He had a bit of a rebound last season in Montreal, but that was after his second trade request of his career.
While Laine isn’t a bust, his career numbers are not commensurate with a second-overall pick. He’s scored 224 goals and 421 points in 532 games. Meanwhile, Matthews has 401 goals and 727 points in 629 games. He’s got a Hart Trophy and three Rocket Richard awards.
So, it’s safe to say the Toronto Maple Leafs made the right call with Matthews.
The Core Four would have never existed without Auston Matthews
Another wrinkle in this story is that the Core Four would have never existed without Matthews. The Leafs have William Nylander and Mitch Marner in the fold before 2016. They also had Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri.
Laine could have played with Kadri, for instance, making a solid top line for the Maple Leafs. But without Auston Matthews, would the Leafs have gone all-in on John Tavares? Tavares might have joined the Leafs anyway, as his dream was to play in Toronto.
But would he have been as compelled to come home to Toronto if Matthews wasn’t with the team?
Without Matthews and Tavares, there would have never been a Core Four. The Leafs would have paid Marner and Nylander, perhaps added Tavares, and likely kept Kadri.
In short, the Maple Leafs’ roster would have looked drastically different without Matthews. Perhaps Matthews would have never blossomed in Winnipeg or anywhere else. Perhaps Laine would now be among the Leafs’ greats.