As the Toronto Maple Leafs look to make a big splash ahead of the 2025-26 NHL season following some underwhelming free agency signings so far this summer, they have been rumoured recently in the trade market in their potential pursuit of various stars. Among them included former three-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, who currently plays for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Formerly one of the best offensive defenseman to have played in the current generation, who wouldn’t want to add an elite star such as Karlsson. After all, he has registered 10 seasons of 10 or more goals and another 12 seasons of 40 or more points. For a Leafs team that have received limited offensive output from their blueliners other than Morgan Rielly for pretty much the past couple of seasons, who wouldn’t welcome such an offensive force to the group.
However, for the best interest of the Maple Leafs, reeling in Karlsson May actually be a bad idea. In fact, they should stay far away from him as possible if they were hoping that the star defenseman can help take the team to the promised land. Why is that?
Well first off, Karlsson isn’t getting any younger at 35 years old. His production could fall off the face of the earth at any point now with Father Time slowly creeping up on him. But by even looking at the numbers, other than his outlier in 2022-23 where he posted a career-high 101 points, Karlsson has seen a decline in his overall production in four of the past five seasons. He has gone from being a 0.9 points per game player for pretty much his entire career to now more a 0.6 ppg player in recent years. And that drop off, excluding his 2022-23 campaign, started after turning the age of 30.
Secondly, if taking a look at his advanced stats, according to Natural Stat Trick, Karlsson has seen his expected goals rate fall below 50% for the first time in three years last season, along with the opponents outscoring the Penguins 82-77 in 5-on-5 situations with him on the ice. He also committed a career-high 140 giveaways (his previous high being only 115) despite given the least amount of ice time on average for his career in 2024-25.
In addition, one of the most important statistic that many may have neglected is the fact that he has limited playoff success during his 16-year tenure in the NHL. Of those 16 years, Karlsson has only managed to lead his team to the playoffs six times and had went beyond the first round just three times. He has also missed the postseason for six consecutive seasons now dating back to 2019. For a Leafs team that is on the verge of having a Stanley Cup or bust mindset each season, Karlsson essentially may not be the right piece to add to their contending puzzle going forward.
So yes, there’s no question that Karlsson would definitely add some value offensively for the Leafs. But to look at the bigger picture and factoring in his potential liabilities, it is a risk that they should not undertake. On top of that, Toronto will likely need to lose some valuable young pieces to get the deal done. As a result, if the Maple Leafs were wise, they should avoid the former stud defenseman and look elsewhere for their big splash this offseason.