Saturday night the Toronto Maple Leafs were on the verge of sweeping the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the 2025 NHL playoffs, however fell in overtime and they will head back home in an attempt to wrap up the series in front of their home ice fans.
Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube has done well with his strategic planning throughout the season and the first round series, specifically his defense ice-time allotments, but Tuesday night the former Stanley Cup champion needs to make three key adjustments to close out the Senators season.
Nick Robertson back in the lineup
The most common and obvious change being discussed throughout social media is that Nick Robertson, who played in the first two games of the series, should draw back into the lineup for Max Pacioretty who replaced him for both contests in Ottawa. The former second-round pick did not look out of place whatsoever in those two games. When Robertson was on the ice at 5-on-5, the Leafs had 51.28 percent of the shot attempt share, which was the most among all Leafs skaters in this series. The underlying metric that did not serve Robertson well was expected goals, as Toronto had just 41.66 xGF% with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Heading on the road in Ottawa, Berube would not be able to match lines as easily and decided to go with the more safe Pacioretty in both games.
Despite winning the third game of the series, Pacioretty looked every bit of his 36-year-old beaten up age. While he was able to play a physical style along the board that Robertson won't be able to match, his line was outmatched heavily and the shot attempts with him on the ice have been heavily one sided 39-25 despite the Maple Leafs holding the heavier shot advantage in both games.
While Robertson's defensive miscues have gotten better late in the season he has taken eight minor penalties over his last games and if he wants to stay in the lineup he has to be more aware of his stick control to avoid putting his team shorthanded.
Bobby McMann on the second line
Throughout the first four games of the series, the Maple Leafs second line that consists of John Tavares and William Nylander has seen both Pontus Holmberg and Max Domi start games on their left side. Late in the fourth game, Berube went back with Bobby McMann flanking the All-Star forwards and he needs to go back to this trio on Tuesday night.
The Wainwright, Alberta native tends to go invisible playing in the bottom six, but has produced throughout the year playing on the second line. Berube needs to give McMann a kick in the pants and say "here you go, now keep it". The 20-goal scorer could create a lot of space for Tavares and Nylander by using his speed and being hard on the forecheck.
Morgan Rielly needs to stay off of the top power-play unit
In the middle of overtime, the Maple Leafs went on a four minute power play due to a Drake Batherson high stick that drew blood from Chris Tanev. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, Tavares who had already scored a pair of powerplay goals in the series was required to go for concussion protocol after a chicken wing elbow to the head from Artem Zub. For me, the obvious replacement would have been for McMann to take his spot on the powerplay as he could slide right into the bumper position, instead the coaching staff, whether it was Berube or Marc Savard decided to put Morgan Rielly out there.
With Rielly out on the power play, not only did it take away the five forward power-play unit, but more importantly it removed Mitch Marner from the top position. There is just a vast difference between the two players are skating ability and decision making. While Marner is smooth and smart, Rielly is very slow and panicks. A few times while on the powerplay he got caught unsure what to do and threw the puck into corners where his teammates can't retrieve it, which leads to easy exits by the Senators and wasted the opportunity to close out the series.
You can count on the fact that if the Maple Leafs happen to go far in the playoffs, there are going to be times where one of those five main forwards are unable to go out on the powerplay, Morgan Rielly can't be their first choice.