The Toronto Maple Leafs suffered a disheartening loss to the Ottawa Senators for Game 4 of their first-round series. But, not all is lost. Sure, they squandered the opportunity to deliver an embarrassing final blow to the intraprovincial rival and be the only team in the playoffs this year to sweep their opponent -- but that would have just been an extra bonus. A display of dominance and a way to tell their rival that they aren't even close to the same level.
Now, the series is heading back to Toronto and the Leafs have yet another chance to finish the job and move on to the second round. Some more troubled fans might be clutching their pearls, thinking of the worst thing that could possibly happen. A reverse sweep would just be yet another way the Leafs would tragically fall out of the playoffs.
But, that's not what we're here to think about. It would feel insane to think that this Senators team could beat this Leafs team three more times in a row. To hit that point even harder, here are five reasons why exactly Toronto will win and close this series very soon:
Leafs still have home ice advantage
We're talking about a series that has had the Leafs winning both games in Toronto, and then splitting the two games in Ottawa by a narrow margin. The home crowd will play a major factor and just having that comfortability at Scotiabank Arena should push Game 5 to Toronto's favor.
But even if it isn't the Blue and White masses doing it, head coach Craig Berube will be able to have that last call to matchup these lines together. And that means the powerhouses of the Leafs lineup being able to feast on the poor depth the Senators have. They will get that chance twice, so, we're feeling comfortable.
Senators can't hold off Leafs' power play much longer
It's all about special teams. For Game 1, the Leafs had a sizeable advantage in time on the power play and that resulted in a dominating win for them. Games 2 and 3, the Senators had the advantage and that is probably why the Leafs needed overtime to decide it. Game 4 is the only outlier in the fact that the Leafs had over seven minutes on the man advantage (compared to the Senators' two minutes and 22 seconds) but lost the game.
But, during Saturday night's loss, the Leafs registered eight shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, and according to Natural Stat Trick, an unbelievable 1.55 expected goals. It was just Linus Ullmark that proved to be the difference and the Senators got extremely lucky there.
We're confident that if the Leafs get at least three chances on the power play, they are walking away from that game with a decisive win. It's going to happen eventually.
Goals should be coming from the typical sources
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander have scored just one goal each. Unbelievably, the entire series has been dependent so far on the offense coming from those secondary sources like Matthew Knies and John Tavares (maybe not so secondary for the former captain), or the completely unlikely sources like Oliver Ekman-Larsson having two goals to his name.
The star players of this team will chip in more. There are still three possible games to play and the fact that the Leafs have not really had to depend on the stars putting pucks in the back of the net yet -- all three have still played exceptionally well -- feels like just staying in first gear.
Goaltending isn't a problem
Typically, one of the main concerns and what can absolutely undo any hard work done by a team's skaters in a playoff series is what is going on in between the pipes. For the Leafs, that has not been a problem whatsoever. Anthony Stolarz has saved 92 of the 102 shots he has faced in this series for a .902 save percentage.
Stolarz is not stealing the series. This isn't a first-round Sergei Bobrovsky where he suddenly decided to be a goaltending god, seemingly slurped up some of that Space Jam sauce. The Toronto goalie is doing what he needs to be doing. The Leafs aren't completely relient on what he does in the crease, but he also has not been a problem whatsoever.
Leafs have lineup options, could bring in Nick Robertson
If all else fails, the Leafs have options to turn to. Nick Robertson was taken out despite the Leafs winning the first two games of the series and when he was on the ice, Toronto had an 8-6 shots on goal advantage. But, clearly they are doing just fine with Max Pacioretty taking his place.
Say Toronto drops Game 5 and they're back in Ottawa with a real big need to not even come close to thinking about the possibility of a Game 7. Robertson can maybe come in as a different look to bring what he brings. The Senators don't have that luxury. The one extra forward they can bring in is Matthew Highmore of all players and even the fact that Nick Cousins is his replacement should tell you everything you need to know about the bottom half of Ottawa's roster.
We're not calling for a change in the lineup, but there are options for Berube if he wants to make a change and that is something the Senators cannot do.
The Leafs are back home at Scotiabank Arena for Game 5 Monday night to hopefully close out this series and send the Senators up the 401 back to Ottawa until the fall.