From the first day back from the 4 Nations Face-Off, to the loss against Ottawa last Saturday, the Toronto Maple Leafs looked like a team on the verge of an epic collapse.
The Toronto Maple Leafs actually won 5 games in a row to exit the break, but those were against easy teams, they played poorly, and they got extremely lucky results. It didn't seem to matter though, because when you win five in a row, nobody cares about your stupid stats being bad.
But then they lost five of six, with the lone win being in a game in which they won in a shootout after blowing a three-goal lead. So a six game losing streak that follows an "empty-calorie winning streak" and leaves you with the 31st worst Expected Goals Percentage in a 32 team league since the break is extremely concerning.
After the Leafs lost the Senators last Saturday, after getting swept by their provincial rival and being only four points up on them for the Wild Card spot, things looked bleak. (naturalstattrick.com for all the stats).
Toronto Maple Leafs execute massively and impressive turnaround
Clearly the Leafs are a very streaky team, but the good news is that their recent three-game winning streak, which they've put together in the last four days, has not only seen them grab six important points, but they've also posted a winning expected goals number over these three games.
This is important because no matter what people with weird agendas want to tell you, Expected Goals Percentage correlates more heavily with future results than the actual results of the game do.
So while the Leafs got very lucky against Colorado, they actually still played fine in that game, and they deserved to beat the Rangers and Flames. It's not only important to win games, but you must win them in such a way as to deserve the victory. If you don't, then you're just relying on luck and that won't get you very far.
Of course, we know this team is very streaky, and we have to be concerned with some of their stats from the entire season. However, that doesn't mean that it's still not an extremely good thing to have three very good games after a month of struggling.
The Leafs have the 7th best points-percentage in the NHL so far this year. They are 22nd in Corsi (puck-possession), 17th in shots-for percentage, 19th in scoring-chance percentage, and 16th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.
Overall, these stats lead to the Leafs being ranked 22nd in the NHL in overall expected goals. Basically, if goalies weren't factor and shooting-luck wasn't a factor, then the Leafs would be the 22nd best team in the league instead of the seventh.
The Leafs shooters aren't exactly exceeding expectations and they are only ranked 13th in shooting-percentage. The reason the Leafs are so good is Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll - they combine to have the sixth highest save-percentage in the NHL.
No coincidence then that the Leafs are the seventh best team in the NHL. It's impressive that they keep winning despite the bad stats. It's awesome that they are a top team despite zero consistency. They have the stars and the goalies to win the Stanley Cup, but they aren't the kind of top team that clinically dismantles their opponents.
Either way, a three-game winning streak is great (unless they lose the next four).