The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson as an unrestricted free-agent this summer, and I immediately criticized the move.
The Toronto Maple Leafs gave the declining Oliver Ekman-Larsson $14 million dollars over four years that will keep him with the club until he is 37.
That wouldn't be so bad, but OEL is already 33 and has lost a step since he first lost a step. At one time, he was a Norris candidate on the worst team in the NHL. They he went to Vancouver where he was so bad at playing top-four minutes that the team that actually likes employing Tyler Myers bought him out (think about what that says).
OEL was decent on Florida in the exact same role that Mark Giordano was decent in last year for the Leafs. They posted virtually the same numbers and both struggled when asked to do more. Even though seemingly every hockey fan knew this, Brad Treliving did not, and he signed him to one of the most indefensible contracts in the NHL.
Time to face the truth: Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a BRUTAL top-four option
In the first two weeks of the season, I received an absolute ton of hate-mail trying to dunk on me for saying that OEL was a bad signing. The first five games were excellent, and honestly, I wish that I had been wrong - I want the Leafs to win the Stanley Cup, and if it takes me being wrong about every single thing, then so be it.
But I wasn't wrong.
OEL after five games: 57% Puck Possession, 60% of the shots, a VERY good 53% Expected Goals rating, and the Leafs were winning his minutes 6-3. He looked physical, he was QB of the power-play, and he looked great. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Unfortunately, the last 200 games of his career turned out to be more predictive of his performance than the first five games of this season.
In the 19 games since, things have gotten rather ugly, culminating in an absolutely horrendous performance against Chicago on Monday.
OEL in the next 19 games: 46% Puck Possession, 45% of the shots, a brutal 47% Expected Goals rating, while the Leafs are losing his minutes 13-11 and allowing more dangerous chances than they get.
It is clear beyond a shadow of a doubt, out beyond the scope of mere opinion, that OEL is barely an NHL player at this point, let alone a top-four defenseman on a competitive team. OEL is likely untradeable, and Treliving unlikely to admit he made such a bad move, but if the Leafs could somehow get out of this contract, it would be a minor miracle.
At the very least, the Leafs need someone who can push OEL down to a role on the Toronto Maple Leafs he might be able to handle.