For the Toronto Maple Leafs trying to avoid a season-long four-game losing streak was not the biggest story entering their game against the Utah HC the other night.
Once news broke of Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving dabbling in the Mikko Rantanen sweepstakes at the NHL Trade Deadline, attention returned to Mitch Marner's upcoming free agency and the lack of a contract extension.
Marner's reported refusal to waive his no-movement clause to facilitate a potential trade for Rantanen has reignited questions about his future in Toronto. Marner uncomfortably dealt with questions about his situation following the team's loss on Saturday to the Colorado Avalanche. Next, Treliving tried to avoid the potential stretch-run distraction with an unscheduled address to the media.
Treliving approaching Marner about a potential move, and Rantanen's sign-and-trade with the Dallas Stars are the two most recent developments that could be precursors to the star right winger's exit from his hometown Leafs.
There is only one amicable solution for Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs
Rantanen's extension with the Stars elevates Marner to the top of the list of unrestricted free agents this summer. After Rantanen's new deal, the biggest names competing for free-agent dollars are Brad Marchand, Nikolaj Ehlers, Brock Nelson, and Aaron Ekblad. None are in Marner's class.
Treliving signed Auston Matthews to an extension before news of the NHL's salary cap increase. That deal looks even better now. The team's best player and league's best goal scorer is locked into the end of the 2027-2028 season at a $13.25 million AAV. William Nylander's contract runs to the end of the 2031-2032 season with an $11.5 million AAV.
Logic dictates that Marner, especially at his current career-season pace and the Rantanen comparable, should slot in with a $12-12.5 million AAV on a new deal. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, there are many obstacles to getting a contract done.
Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, want to test free agency. With a Ranaten deal done, Marner is the class of the free agent market. The Leafs are unlikely to offer more than $13 million per year and overturn their internal valuation of the Matthews-Marner-Nylander hierarchy, although since Nylander and Matthews signed deals under a lower salary cap, it is completely arbitrary to insist that Marner make less than Matthews.
If Leafs management decides to keep its 2015 fourth-overall first-round selection, money won't be the biggest concern. A more important factor will be the team's and Marner's postseason performance.
Less than a year ago, after another first-round, Game 7 elimination, many (of the worst) Leafs fans were ready to trade Marner. Marner has consistently stated his desire to stay, but it may not matter. Another team failure and subpar production from Marner in the playoffs will see those requests intensify.
Marner might be ready to relieve himself of the hometown scrutiny and spotlight and decide to go elsewhere. The Leafs would be left with nothing but extra cap space.
The team has recently slumped and found themselves in second place in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning nipping at their heels and threatening to leap them in the standings. A second or third-place finish and the difficult playoff path it brings is not unfathomable.
Put it all together, and despite reasons for optimism compared to other years, it's not hard to envision another doomsday scenario with an early exit from the playoffs.
The solution to everything is winning. A long playoff run, the minimum being one of the last four teams standing, is the only thing left to salvage the Mitch Marner-Toronto Maple Leafs relationship.