If not for a lucky shoot-out win, the Toronto Maple Leafs would have lost their fourth in a row Monday night. But if not for a previous, and very lucky, overtime victory against the Penguins last week, it would have been five games in a row.
In fact, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been complete crap since the NHL resumed playing after the 4 Nations Face-Off. Their record is quite good - 6-2-1 for a very solid .722 - but the underlying numbers are a mess.
If this team has been an over-achieving, goalie-propped-up disaster for most of this season, things have gotten even worse since the break.
While the Leafs are in impressive 6-3 since the break, they also won three games in that period in overtime, meaning that they actually have only three regulation wins in their last nine games, which is very bad.
Since the break, the Leafs are 30th, in a 32 team league, in puck-possession. Puck possession has one of the highest correlations to winning, over the long term, of any statistic that the NHL tracks.
The Maple Leafs are playing badly, they blew it at the deadline, what now?
OK so maybe you don't think Corsi is a good stat. Maybe the regressive old-school guys who dominate the NHL media made fun of it so much that you don't know any better. That's cool. Everyone can understand that getting outshot is bad. The Leafs have been outshot 205 to 170 since the break. That means they only had 45% of the total shots, good for the 28th worst mark in the entire NHL. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Being out-shot and out-possessed has led to the Leafs ranking 31st in Expected Goals Percentage since the break. This is the biggest indicator of future success, and the fact that it's about as bad as possible is not good news.
In addition to the bad stats: there is no guarantee this goaltending holds up. While being a top 5v5 save-percentage team has helped the Leafs avoid trouble all season long, they are ranked 26th since the break. With the 31st best xGoals rating, and the 26th best goaltending, the Leafs should in no way be able to have 6-3 record, but keep in mind, that record is really 3-2-3-1 which is much worse.
The Leafs three recent overtime wins, plus their second-best in the NHL 9 power-play goals since the break are what is currently helping them win games. Relying on OT wins and the power-play is even sketchier than relying on a hot goalie.
Matthews also bad
I also have even worse news: An MVP-Level Auston Matthews has operated at between 55% and 65% Expected Goals for the last few years, while scoring close to a goal per game. Since the break he's barely breaking 50% xGoals and has three goals, one of them into an empty-net and only one of them was at 5v5.
The Leafs are in trouble. They had a chance to get better, but all they did was bring in two mid-range non-stars at an incredibly inflated price. After years of playing Studs and Duds and telling their fans to "trust the process" the Leafs have, sadly and pathetically, reverted to a completely old-school operation, overrating intangibles and ignoring statistical evidence.
Trading what they did for a number-four defenseman and a fourth liner was so dumb it's hard to comprehend. The Leafs could be like the 2018 Washington Capitals who won after years of being a top team in a year where they sort of just got lucky. That's the best we can hope for at this point.
Hilariously, the Leafs since the break are a top team, despite their terrible underlying numbers, but two of the only teams ahead of them during this time are Florida and Tampa, so they aren't even gaining anything from their bonkers and undeserved record.
One can only look back to Kyle Dubas' failed coup and wish he were successful. Brad Treliving and his low-risk, hyper-safe management style is 100 x worse. Berube is an overrated coach who keeps making insane lineup decisions and the Leafs are going nowhere. I'll still be cheering for them, but I expect less than nothing at this point.