The Toronto Maple Leafs will not be bringing back John Tavares next season unless it’s on a heavily discounted deal. The writing has been on the wall for Tavares since the team very eloquently stripped him of his captaincy this past summer.
Now, I’ll be frank. I wasn’t enamored with the move. If you look back on my take at the time, my position was to let Tavares play out his final year with the C on his jersey and then let him ride off into the sunset.
Instead, the Leafs took the C off and gave it to Auston Matthews. I also felt that Matthews hadn’t proven himself as a leader then. But I will say that Matthews has more than proven he’s ready to be the Leafs captain.
Now, back to Tavares. Tavares is a great guy. He’s the kind of hockey player you don’t easily see in today’s NHL. But he should no longer be considered a core player for the Toronto Maple Leafs at this point.
Barring a Stanley Cup, the Leafs are going to need to revamp their roster next season and John Tavares leaving is going to be the easiest way to do that.
The Leafs simply cannot bring back both Tavares and Marner, and that means that Tavares is the likeliest one to leave the organization. I’m also certain that if Tavares wants one last big payday, there are other desperate teams looking to make a splash, who would be willing to pay him.
Think of what the Nashville Predators did with Steven Stamkos. The Tampa Bay Lightning bit the bullet, let Stamkos walk, and now they’re better off for it.
Toronto Maple Leafs could make better use of Tavares’ cap hit
So, if and when Tavares moves on, the Leafs will have $11 million in cap space freed up plus roughly $4 million from the salary cap increase. The cap increase likely goes toward keeping Mitch Marner.
That means a fair chunk of Tavares’ $11 million goes toward keeping Matthews Knies. I don’t want to speculate on how much Knies could get at this point, but it could be something considerably well past the $5 million per season range.
After signing Marner and Knies, the Leafs would still need to take the remaining cap space to find a suitable replacement for Tavares.
I will go out on a limb and say that if Marner doesn’t re-sign, the Leafs will have a ton of cap space that could be used to take a swing at a big name. I don’t want to speculate on who that could be at this point.
Ultimately, the Leafs will do well to move on from John Tavares. If he’s willing to re-sign on a significant hometown discount, that could solve the Leafs’ needs at 3C. Otherwise, the Leafs will be looking to make good use of Tavares’ $11 million heading into next season.