The Toronto Maple Leafs had won five in a row, eight of nine, and only lost a single game in the entire month of February, so of course they lost last night to the San Jose Sharks, one of the NHL's worst teams.
In reality, the Toronto Maple Leafs can't win every game, and they have played a ton of hockey lately. Not only did all their best players recently participate in the 4 Nations Face-Off, but since then they played two sets of back-to-backs, and on top of the San Jose game coming the day after the Penguins game, the Leafs had to not only travel back to Toronto (in the middle of a six out of seven games on the road stretch) but they played their third game in four nights.
The Leafs played one of their worst games of the season last night, but they still got a point under difficult circumstances, so you have to be pretty happy with the result.
The fact is, an actual NHL team dressed Simon Benoit, Conor Timmins and Philippe Myers in the same game and still got a point. Not bad, but with the trade deadline on Friday, you certainly get the feeling that the Leafs blue-line is too bad to fix at this point.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Show Why You Can't Trust Them + No Trades Yet!
The schedule is a fair excuse, but only to a point. The fact is, the Leafs are ranked 20th in 5v5 Corsi, 15th in shots-for percentage, 11th in 5v5 scoring per minute, 19th in scoring-chances for percentage, 14th in high-danger scoring chance percentage, and 23rd in Expected Goals Percentage. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
By any metric, other than wins, the Leafs are a mediocre team. One that loses to the San Jose Sharks. But that said, they are first in their division and fifth overall in the NHL. Wins are great, but the fact is the underlying numbers have a bigger impact than the results over the long-term.
Regardless of any night's performance, the stats tell us that the Leafs are a mediocre team propped up by great goaltending. They rank 5th in 5v5 goaltending, and 4th in PDO which tracks luck.
There are two types of competitive team: one that clinically dismantles opponents and one that gets a bunch of lucky results. The Leafs fit into the latter category, however their collection of high-end superstar players gives them a higher ceiling than most teams who are just putting together a lucky season.
Matthews, Tavares and Nylander haven't contributed all that much over the last month, and the Leafs are still in first place. Should those guys get it going, that will account for some of the good luck that is sure to eventually dry up, but in order to be truly confident heading into the playoffs, the Leafs need to make a massive upgrade.
Three of the seven teams from the East they will have to get through have already made significant upgrades to the top of their lineups. What the Leafs do between now and Friday is going to dictate what happens in May and beyond. The Leafs need one, maybe two high-end additions - and all due respect, Brayden Schenn just isn't going to cut it this time.