The Toronto Maple Leafs are heavily rumored to be pursuing Brayden Schenn ahead of the NHL's trade deadline.
The Hockey World, at large, thinks this is a very good move for the the Toronto Maple Leafs. Everyone I've spoken to is a big fan of this happening. I think it's a bad idea.
A very, very bad one.
But here me out: I'm not trying to be contrarian and I don't want to troll anyone. I just think it's important to question anything this unanimous, and I think the contract and statistical decline are concerning. Let's dig into it:
Brayden Schenn, the Details
Schenn is a 33 year old Stanley Cup winning centre. He is the captain of his team and he is only two years removed from a 65 point campaign which was the second highest total of his long and esteemed career. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
He also is in year five of eight on a $6.5 million cap-hit that takes him to age 36.
Brayden Schenn is a playoff warrior. He plays THE RIGHT WAY. He's a champion. He's knows how to win..........hey wait a minute, haven't we been here before?
Schenn is the 33 years old, which makes him older then the other old-guy's who knew how to win like Nick Foligno and Ryan O'Reilly. It didn't work when the Leafs brought in those other guys, and I don't think it won't work now. (Well, there's always like a 12% chance the Leafs fluke their way to the Stanley Cup Finals, but Brayden Schenn isn't going to do much to up those percentages).
I understand that Schenn has won before, and that he would be a big upgrade on what the Leafs currently have, but consider this: This exact same move has failed twice before, and Schenn has massively declined from the player he used to be.
The cost is rumored to be a prospect and a pick and likely that means Cowan and a first because Schenn only comes if his salary is retained or a team takes back Domi. I think the Leafs would be wise to use these assets to acquire someone who is closer to their prime or who has some upside. I also think the Leafs big move should be for a defenseman, but let's just stick with evaluating Schenn for today.
Contradicting Experts: Everyone Else Loves This Move
Look, I don't pretend to be some great hockey expert. I'm just a fan of the Leafs who is likely way too into NHL hockey for a 40 something father of three. I'd love to have 50 hours a week to devote to knowing everything about the NHL, but I still have to work for a living.
Because of this, I make it my business to listen to experts who actually do get to devote their lives to knowing everything about hockey. On occasion, I even speak directly to some of them and pick their brains.
And to a man, all of these people think the Leafs getting Schenn is a great idea.
Nothing is unanimous, but every single person who I have access to who knows more about the NHL than I do is gung-ho on the Leafs getting Schenn - so by all means take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt.
But besides talking to as many people who are smarter than me as I can, as someone who isn't able to dedicate themselves 24/7 to knowing everything about the NHL, I have to rely on statistics.
Statistical Analysis
I think that statistics are the great equalizer. An NHL lifer has a lot of personal experience but that personal experience is coloured by who they know and have relationships with. It's coloured by being successful beyond most people's dreams and having no reason to question what's worked for them in the past. But statistics are evidence of what happens, and if you're objective about them sometimes they change your mind. (They can also help talk you into making stupid decisions and defending stupid ideas, I am well aware).
So in the face of a nearly unanimous appreciation for Braden Schenn's game, I have this to say:
- It has been 5 seasons since Brayden Schenn had a positive puck-possession rating. You can laugh at Corsi, but other than Expected Goals, which includes Corsi in it's calculations, no hockey stat correlates more to being successful than puck possession does.
- It has been 4 seasons since the Blues won his minutes (his 5v5 Goals-For% this season is 48% - the Blues lose when he's on the ice)
His AAV I believe starts to go down starting next year and doesn’t remain at 6.5 on his contract. I thought I had seen/head it’s at 4.5mil next year on a rising cap which isn’t as bad.
— Gregory Rose (@Gregory09825273) February 27, 2025
- 2018-19 was the last season Schenn finished with an Expected Goals Rating above 50%.
- The Leafs lack 5v5 scoring, and Schenn won't help with that. He has 5 goals on the season at 5v5, which would tie him for 8th on the Leafs. This is the same amount of goals Max Pacioretty has, and Pacioretty has been so bad that he should be cut.
- Schenn is scoring at a rate of 1.62 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice-time. On the Leafs that ranks him just above Domi and just below Pacioretty, two players who have been incredibly awful and are the reasons the Leafs would even consider adding a player like Schenn in the first place.
OK so what about defense? Well, look at that JFresh Player Card above. Schenn, for the last three years, has provided terrible defense. He has not helped his team in anything more than intangibles. Yes, he's a winner, and there is no doubt that he's a tested playoff warrior. But so was ROR and so was Nick Foligno.
I don't question those intangibles, but the Leafs are a mediocre team that relies on getting top-of-the-league goaltending. They are not just one character-actor upgrade away from winning - they need, at least in my opinion, a legit star player upgrade (at any position). You simply cannot bet the entire season on a hope that Anthony Stolarz will give you Connor Hellebuyck or Andrei Vasilevskiy level goaltending.
The Brayden Schenn of five years ago is what the Leafs need. But for Brayden Schenn to be a good addition today would require being completely rejuvenated by his trade to a contender. Should the Leafs bet their entire season on that happening? Today's Schenn doesn't defend effectively and he doesn't score much more than what the Leafs already have, so the entire premise of the trade is that coming to Toronto is going to de-age him five years.
Treliving and Shanahan would be betting their jobs on this trade, and for the cost, I just can't help but think there has to be a higher value bet to make.
Should the Leafs pay a premium for someone who won a Stanley Cup for someone else? Should they be paying a premium for character and experience? I don't think they should be. I think that they've exhausted that idea and proven that it doesn't work. They need to use their limited assets on someone who will be contributing here for years.
In conclusion, at the Trade Deadline during the Auston Matthews Era, the Leafs have focused on character and experience almost exclusively and they have also been one of the least successful playoff teams in NHL history when compared to their regular season record and the length of their competitive window. I think it's time for a different approach. I think the Leafs should be getting younger and more talented at the trade deadline. The experts disagree, but I hope I've given you some food for thought. Thanks for listening.
Schenn's contract is bad and he's only going to get worse. Brutus was an honorable man....