The concept of trading Matthew Knies is, I'd be willing to wager, considered completely insane my most fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
But then again, so is Toronto Maple Leafs winning the Stanley Cup.
In a season where Auston Matthews is in his prime, Mitch Marner is on the verge of leaving and John Tavares is likely having his last great year, the concept of the untouchable player should be seen as ridiculous.
The Leafs have one tradable asset that other teams would accept as payment for an elite player, and that is Matthew Knies. Easton Cowan, their next first round pick, and Fraser Minten, combined into one package, would have less value than Matthew Knies, so the Leafs need to consider trading him.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Should Consider Trading This "Untouchable" Player
Knies currently has 21 goals and is on pace for a 33 goal season. His Corsi is a solid 51%, he's winning his minutes, and his expected goals rating is an excellent 54%. He is scoring at a rate of 1.87 per 60 minutes.
17 of Knies 21 goals are at 5v5, but the concern here is that he's scoring on 24% of this shots. No player is going to keep scoring at their current pace when they are scoring on one of ever four shots they take. Matthew Knies is scoring at a rate that is incredibly impressive, but it is equally unsustainable. NHL goalies just do not let ANYONE score on 24% of their shots consistantly.
For context, I think we'd all be happy if Knies turned into Chris Krieder, who is the same size and similarly scores a ton of garbage goals. It's tempting to think that because he's a "garbage man" that Knies' shooting percentage will naturally be higher than other players', and maybe his current number can actually last. Well, Chris Kreider, the NHL's preeminent "garbage man" has never gone a full season shooting higher than 14% 5v5.
Consider this as well: Matthew Knies plays almost exclusively with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. In Zach Hyman's last season with Marner and Matthews, he had a 52% Corsi, a 59% xGoals rating, the Leafs won his minutes, and he scored at a way higher rate than Knies - 2.14 Points per 60 minutes of ice-time.
In Michael Bunting's last year with Marner and Matthews, he posted a 52% Corsi, a 56% expected goals and the Leafs won his minutes by a crazy amount. He also scored at a higher rate than Knies, posting 1.91 Points per 60. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Conclusion
1. Matthews Knies is scoring at an impossible to sustain rate. He'll never be Chris Kreider, and yet he's currently scoring on 24% of his shots, which is 10 percetage points more than Kreider ever finished a season with.
2. He plays all his minutes with Matthews and Marner, and the last two guys to do so posted even better numbers than Knies has posted. As the third player in a row who has succeeded wildly in this position, we should notice the pattern and not get over excited.
3. Knies plays the exact kind of position that tends to get overrated by NHL GMs. His combination of size and scoring ability is extremely coveted and there is a huge chance to get someone to overpay. This works the wrong way too - teams tend to overpay these guys in free-agency and the Leafs are highly likely to give Knies a contract next year that is impossible to get any value on.
Yes, trading Knies carries risk. Having a power-forward who is 6'3 230 is always desirable. The fact that he's on such a cheap entry-level contract and the Leafs are in cap trouble is a reason to keep him, but it's also worth keeping in mind that that makes him super-valuable in a trade.
I wouldn't trade Knies just to trade him, but when improving your team, you must always trade from a source of strength to address a weakness. The Leafs have four forwards who are better than Knies, and zero defenseman who are elite. Knies is their most valuable asset and the one most likely to get them in on conversations about Noah Dobson or Bowen Byram.
Further more, I would say that right now the Leafs have about a zero-percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup with their current roster. They lack tradable assets, cap-space, and have holes all over their roster. They also are in win-now mode and their players aren't getting any younger. Therefore, making a bold, creative, high-risk move is likely the only way they can salvage their season.
Trading Matthew Knies as what I would be willing to bet is the peak of his value, would be just such a move.