The Toronto Maple Leafs will not trade Mitch Marner. Thanks to Friday's announcement regarding the NHL's salary cap, the Leafs will be able to re-sign Marner without feeling too much restraint from the increasing salary cap.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a few important contracts to deal with in the off-season. Marner and John Tavares are the two main unrestricted free agents (UFA), and Matthew Knies is the Leafs number one restricted free agent (RFA). Getting all three re-signed under the salary cap was looking bleak.
However, the NHL and NHLPA announced their cap estimates for the next three seasons. Each season will see a significant jump, which should benefit teams like the Leafs, who were starting to feel the pinch. This season's salary cap is $88 million, and the estimate for next season is $95.5 million. This new estimate is up from the $92.5 million given last season for the 2025-26 season.
The other two salary cap estimates given by the NHL and NHLPA are $104 million for the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season. So, in total, the salary cap will increase by $7.5 million next season, $8.5 million in 2026-27, and $9.5 million in 2027-28. That is more than enough money for the Leafs to keep Marner around long-term.
Toronto Maple Leafs Will Re-Sign Marner
Mitch Marner is in the last year of his six-year contract that carries a salary cap hit of $10.9 million a season. Many around the NHL have speculated that Marner will seek between $12 million and $12.5 million on his next deal. Although both appear to be high numbers in the NHL, for Marner and the Leafs, it's only an increase of $1.1 million to $1.6 million.
(Salary cap information from puckpedia.com)
With the salary cap going up as high as it is for next season, an additional $1.6 million to keep Marner on the Leafs is a no-brainer for Leafs GM Brad Treliving.
Now, Marner, his agent, or his meddling father might try to push their asking price even higher, but we know that the $13.25 million that team captain Auston Matthews is making is the Leafs limit. No player will make equal to or more than Matthews while he is on the team.
I expect the Leafs to get Marner re-signed, and I expect his cap hit to be under $13 million a season. The Leafs are expected to have around $30.5 million this off-season. With Marner coming in at under half of that amount, the Leafs will have more than enough to re-sign Tavares, Knies, and have enough left over to make upgrades where needed.