The Toronto Maple Leafs and their fans and supporters have been so desperate to develop a star player outside of the top 10 in the NHL Entry Draft that we may have jumped the gun in anointing Matthews Knies that title.
While Matthew Knies got off to a hot start this year, his overall play hasn't been as good as his goal totals make it seem, and he is a long way from stardom at this point.
People have been clambering for the Maple Leafs to re-sign him to an extension, but they may actually be wiser to consider cashing in on him while his numbers are inflated. (You don't want to just give up on a huge potential power-forward, but at the same time, if a player is overvalued, you're not doing your job if you're not exploring trades).
In fact, I think a detailed look into Knies' stats shows that the Leafs and their fans should be a lot more patient with Nick Robertson , who is only a year older and who isn't getting first line minutes or as much power-play time as Knies is, but whose overall production has not been all that different.
Narratives are a funny thing, and if you're not paying attention you could be excused if you're already to induct Matthew Knies and his 11 goals in 30 games into a revamped version of the Core Four. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
Matthew Knies Play and Performance Starting to Get Concerning
Knies started hot, scoring 7 goals in his first 14 games, including a stretch of five goals in six games. He only has 4 goals in his last 16 games. Outside of that one hotstreak, he has 6 goals in 24 games, which is a 20 goal pace, and not top line production.
Of Knies 18 points, only 7 are on the PP, which is not too bad. Unfortunately, outside of that production there isn't much to like about his 5v5 game right now, which might explain why Berube has moved him off the top line.
The stats overall are fine - he's close to or over 50% in all major categories (puck possession, shots-for, scoring chances for, etc.) and has a 53% Expected Goals Rating. It's good to win your minutes, but the first line of the Toronto Maple Leafs featuring both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner has to do a lot better than break even, and you would like to see the Expected Goals around 56%, at least.
A first line left-winger playing mostly with Matthews and Mitch Marner should have better stats. With Knies on the ice at 5v5, the Leafs are getting just 49% of the shots, and they are only tied 18-18 in goals. That's not good enough for their first line.
Also, while the 9 goals and 11 points at 5v5 are impressive, he's shooting 24% which is ridiculous to and not even close to sustainable. His goal totals are exaggerated based on what we can expected going forward if he doesn't improve his play beyond today's level.
Knies Needs to be Better
I'm not saying Knies is bad or that I don't like him, or that he doesn't have a bright future. There is a heck of a lot to like about his game, but it's starting to look like, at least for this season, that he is miscast at the top of the lineup for a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup.
Max Pacioretty is 35 and half the player he used to be. He also leads the Leafs in points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice-time with 2.41 P/60. Knies only has 1.6 P/60, which is 8th on the team and below Max Domi, who went 16 games without a point.
Knies 1.6 P/60 is only slightly ahead of Nick Robertson's 1.3 P/60, and Knies plays in much more favorable situations to score. The problem with Knies's game is that he doesn't shoot enough (he's averaging half the shots per hour as McMann) and only has 1 primary assist, which is terrible when you're with Auston Matthews for the majority of your minutes.
In closing, the Leafs should not be in a hurry to re-sign Knies to a monster extension. They clearly need a new first-line left-winger, and realistically, Knies is best helping this team if he's on the third or fourth line at this point.
Knies doesn't seem equipped with the passing skills necessary to play with Auston Matthews, and he doesn't have the production or the underlying stats to warrant further time in the top six at this point. He is going to be a good player in the future, but the future is now for the Toronto Maple Leafs and they must proceed accordingly.