When I first started writing about the Toronto Maple Leafs for Editor in Leaf, it was 2016. I realized that without access to the team, and without a budget to travel and see them in person, the thing that
would differentiate me from the thousands of other Leafs writers was that I would attack the dumb narratives, when they occurred, with statistical evidence.
It's been a blast doing this, and I've really enjoyed comparing how the in-season narratives that surround the team stand up to statistical analysis, but this year is something totally different and very unusual: The Toronto Maple Leafs are both awesome and horrible.
An interesting thing about writing about hockey through a statistical filter is how people react when what you are saying doesn't coincide with the results. When this happens,I look crazy and people react harshly.
Yeah, it can occaisionally hurt your feelings, but it's also endlessly amusing. The best part is when you turn out to be 100% right, none of the people who insulted you remember or care.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a crazy statistical anomaly, but who cares?
It is truely hilarious how mean and crazy the messages you get everytime you say something that is true, but which contradicts recent results - it's so prevelent and so objectively ill-informed it can make it all but impossible to hear real criticism.
Some examples of this happening: failing to convince people that Jake Gardiner was an awesome player, or that the Leafs won the Alex Kerfoot trade, that Erik Karlsson is a first-ballot hall of fame superstar who might be the best defenseman since Nic Lidstrom, believing that the Keefe-led Leafs were due year after year after year after year. Etc.
The reason I bring all this up is just to discuss the idea that the Leafs are amazing - they're four points up on Florida, are 7-2-1 in their last ten, are sixth overall in the NHL and have won 70% of their points since the 4 Nations Face-Off - and also horrible.
Since the break, the Leafs are 31st in Corsi, and 27th in Expectd Goals Percentage. They are defying some horrible play with absolutely bonkers results.
But Mitch Marner is having a Hart Trophy season, Auston Matthews is Auston Matthews, they finally have one of the best goalies in the world (Stolarz), Tavares is on fire, and the Tanev/McCabe pairing is totally and completely amazing.
This is a team with 3 x franchise players in their primes, a lot of veteren players who are still decent, and a pretty damn good goalie. Their coach is a Cup Winner and they're way overdue for some good luck.
Should you believe in the wins? Should you believe in the numebrs that say that eventually the bottom is going to fall out? I can't tell you what to think, but what I'm just going to do is try to have fun and hope for the best. Weird things happen in the NHL goaltending and goalscoring can hide a lot of problems.
I would say I'm cautiously optimistic. But I think it's weird that no one even wants to talk about or acknowledge the disparity between the wins the numbers. (naturalstattrick.com).