The Toronto Maple Leafs have made a boatload of changes this current offseason with hopes to change their fortunes for the upcoming season. Maple Leafs management had a complete overhaul with practically a whole new team running the show with GM John Chayka at the helm. In addition, Toronto will have quite the different look on the ice as well as almost half of their roster from Opening Night last year has since departed the organization.
But what will be the biggest determining factor for the Maple Leafs success or failure in the upcoming 2026-27 season? Will it be how Chayka or new Leafs coach Jim Hiller run the team? Or how about the redemption season for Auston Matthews? Perhaps it could be the potential breakout of No. 1 overall pick Gavin McKenna?
This biggest factor will determine the Maple Leafs success or failure in 2026-27
They all could have a potential impact on how well the Maple Leafs do in the upcoming year. But none will be as big as the huge gamble that Toronto made in bringing in star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Just from taking a look at his resumé, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and two-time Stanley Cup champion, he has proven to be one of the best in the game.
However, Bobrovsky is coming off his worst season ever in the NHL with the Florida Panthers last season. He compiled a 27-23-1 record with a worrisome 3.07 GAA and .877 save percentage in 52 games of action. His save percentage was even among the bottom five in the entire league for goaltenders with a minimum of 30 games played. More significantly, Bobrovsky will be 38 when the regular season starts in September for the Leafs.
So how much of his regression in numbers in 2025-26 was as a result of the defense that was playing in front of him in Florida, and how much was it due to Father Time starting to creep in? Don’t forget, both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll also had their worst campaigns last season playing behind a struggling Maple Leafs squad. So a similar situation with the Panthers last year could have been the main reason for Bobrovsky’s decline in play.
In addition, if Leafs fans want to draw some inspiration from the past, Ed Belfour’s numbers with the Dallas Stars were on the decline prior to joining Toronto for the 2002-03 season at age 37. Belfour would turn back the clock and post consecutive sub-2.30 GAA campaigns while backstopping the Leafs to back-to-back playoff appearances, including reaching the second round for one of the years.
So if Bobrovsky can return to form and pull off something similar to what Belfour did, but go another couple of rounds more in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Maple Leafs will be more than happy with their successful investment. However, if Bobrovsky’s decline is indeed legitimate, Leafs fans can expect another long season and beyond as it could potentially feel like 2025-26 all over again.
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