Ask almost any Toronto Maple Leafs fan, and they will rave to you about the job Craig Berube has done so far.
The Toronto Maple Leafs withstood ten games without Auston Matthews, their goalies are among the league-leaders in every statistical category, and defense and playing PLAYOFF HOCKEY is the name of the game.
What doesn't get talked about was how good defensively the Leafs were under Sheldon Keefe, how they nearly grinded out the very definition of a PLAYOFF HOCKEY WIN against the Bruins last spring with two injured superstars and a third playing on just one leg after returning super-early from a high-ankle sprain.
What doesn't get talked about is how ugly the numbers under the hood are. How bad the blue-line is, and how lousy of a job Craig Berube is actually doing. (Until he stops dressing Ryan Reaves, playing all his stars in the top-six, and playing OEL in the top-four, no one can say he's doing a good job with a straight face). (stats naturalstattrick.com).
Shocking Stats Show that the Maple Leafs are Being Propped Up by Goalies
The fact is, everything currently being attributed to Craig Berube can be attributed to Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. As for the Leafs GM, can you imagine how much heat he'd be taking for the garbage play of Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson if he didn't hit a home-run on the goalie thing.
Only problem - no person in the NHL can predict goalies, so it's way too early to celebrate. While Stolarz is doing great, everyone knows the tale of Cinderella, and everyone who watches hockey knows that there are basically just two goalies alive in the world that are consistently great - Connor Hellebuyck and Andre Vasilevskiy.
Everyone is crediting Berube for his coaching and defense, but in reality, Anthony Stolarz is making him look good. The Leafs - who are only 8th overall - have gotten this far almost exclusively on goaltending.
The Leafs main problems are as follows: They don't have more than two above-average centreman on their team. Their blue-line is terrible defensively and it doesn't offer enough offense. Finally, they do not, and as far as I know, have not, ever dressed their optimal lineup.
Last game, the six defenseman the Leafs dressed were Tanev, Rielly, Myers, OEL, Benoit and Timmins. A team expecting to win the Stanley Cup should dress maybe one of those guys, max. That is 4 x "number-six" or AHL defenseman in the lineup. It's unacceptable.
The Leafs had Giordano who was more than capable of crushing third pairing minutes. They swapped him out for OEL at 4 x the cost and got worse. The Timothy Liljegren trade was an absolute disaster by any metric or objective evaluation. The blue-line is slow and bad at moving the puck.
After 28 games, the Leafs rank 23rd in the NHL in 5v5 puck-possession, which is far more predictable for future success than 5v5 save-percentage, which they are 2nd in the NHL in.
The Leafs are 4th in the NHL in PDO (measures luck) but only 8th in the standings. That means that despite being the 4th luckiest team, they are actually playing so badly that they are 8th overall. That's a very bad sign.
The Leafs expected goals percentage is under 50%, which means that goalies aside they would be under .500. Even their so-called defense is overrated: They are 9th (behind Ottawa) in dangerous chances allowed per minute.
The Leafs allow the other team to possess the puck more than they do, they allow more shots than they get, and they allow more scoring chances than they produce. My any standard, other than goaltending, they are having a terrible season.
Unfortunately for them, their best stat, goalie save percentage, is the most unsustainable.