The Leo Carlsson offer sheet has gripped the NHL with the force of a nuclear blast. It was one thing to see a major rising star targeted with one. But the dollar value made more than a few folks’ eyes pop back inside their heads.
And that’s why the Maple Leafs should take note.
No, the Leafs aren’t likely going to extend any offer sheets. And the team doesn’t have any potential targets… yet.
That’s right. The Carlsson offer sheet dropped on the same day the Maple Leafs signed Gavin McKenna to his entry-level contract (ELC). That’s three years the organization won’t have to worry about keeping Mr. McKenna in the fold.
But the Maple Leafs will have to worry about extending McKenna in the summer of 2028. While he would still have one left on his ELC, he’ll be eligible to sign an extension that summer.
The Leafs had better make sure he doesn’t land on July 1, 2029, without a contract.
The number of teams potentially lining up to offer sheet McKenna could be massive. Teams that could do that this summer might have the picks to do it in three years. Even if Toronto signs McKenna on June 30, 2029, the key is to avoid seeing the highly talented prospect officially reach RFA status.
This situation might seem like something that’s eons away from happening. But if you’re John Chayka, you have this conversation with your staff today.
What could McKenna’s next contract look like?
Trying to predict Gavin McKenna’s contract is like trying to predict the stock market. A lot of things can happen from now until the time comes for a new deal.
But judging solely on the prevailing market conditions, you have to wonder if McKenna can top Carlsson’s numbers, would the Leafs’ top pick be worth $18 million?
Think about it.
Carlsson signed the offer sheet coming out of his ELC. In that time, Carlsson has played 201, scored 61 goals, and 141 points. He hasn’t won anything, nor does he have a Stanley Cup.
Now, let’s assume that McKenna lives up to all the hype. He wins the Calder Trophy next season, and easily tops Carlsson’s numbers in his first three seasons.
Would that make him worth as much as Carlsson?
It’s worth noting that the salary cap ceiling will be $123 million precisely for the 2028-29 season, the final year of McKenna’s ELC.
How does that situation influence the calculus for McKenna’s next contract?
All told, John Chayka and the Maple Leafs will have to start ensuring they have enough cap space to sign McKenna to a $16 million to $18 million AAV in about two years.
When factoring in what Jason Robertson, Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Matthew Schaefer are likely to get, it’s easy to see just how concerning McKenna’s next contract could be.
And the Maple Leafs had better not mess around. If they do, McKenna could become an offer sheet target.
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