The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an eerily similar spot this year, heading into the 2026 NHL Draft.
10 years ago, the Leafs had the first-overall pick. Their tank during the 2015-26 worked marvelously, allowing Toronto to get the first pick in the 2016 NHL Draft.
At that time, there was a debate raging. On the one hand, there was an Arizona kid named Auston Matthews. He was far too good for the minors. During the 2014-15 season, Matthews played for the US National Development Team. All he did was score 55 goals and 117 points in 60 games.
He was so good that he wanted to turn pro before being drafted into the NHL. So, the only real chance he had of doing so was playing in Europe. Matthews played for the ZSC Lions in Switzerland during the 2015-16 season, scoring 24 goals and 46 points in 36 games.
On the other hand, a Finnish winger was tearing up his respective part of the world. That winger was Patrik Laine. Like Matthews, Laine was playing pro before getting drafted into the NHL. Laine played for Tappara in the Finnish Liiga, scoring 17 goals and 33 points in 46 games during the 2015-16 season.
But where Laine really shone was internationally. At the World Juniors in 2016, Laine scored seven goals and 13 points in seven games. He totaled 21 points in 15 international matches with Finland that season.
That situation led to a debate: Should the Maple Leafs pick Matthews or Laine? There were other uber-talented players in that year’s field. There was Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, and a defenseman named Charlie McAvoy.
The consensus was that Matthews was the overall most talented player in the draft. Still, there were some reservations about the Maple Leafs potentially taking Laine first overall. The Leafs never really doubted, choosing Matthews over Laine.
Fast-forward 10 years, and it’s clear who the better pick was. Matthews went to Toronto first overall, while Laine went to the Winnipeg Jets second.
Maple Leafs face debate in choosing McKenna or Stenberg
History seems to be repeating itself in 2026. The debate facing Toronto is whether to choose Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg. While Stenberg looks to be a solid player, his lack of size has raised the most concerns about his overall skill set.
As Corey Pronman noted in an insightful description in The Athletic, Stenberg has a clear downside.
“If Stenberg doesn’t score a lot, I don’t love his backup game,” cautioned a scout. “If he’s a 50-point, 5-11 wing, it’s not a very valuable piece.”
McKenna is the best pure talent, just like Matthews was in his draft year. Yes, there were some reservations about Matthews’ overall skill set. But that’s par for the course when looking at 18-year-old players.
McKenna has been described as having an elite hockey IQ and being a very smart player. While Stenberg seems to be a gritty forward, he has to score. Otherwise, there might not be much upside to his overall game.
For all of those second-guessing the idea of the Maple Leafs taking McKenna, think about when the Leafs selected Wendel Clark first overall in 1985. None of the players taken after him were any better. Even in the dark ages of Maple Leafs history, the organization got that pick right.
And all they did was take the best player available at #1. In 2026, that’s McKenna. End of story. Yes, there are some other great players in this year’s field, but like Clark and Matthews, the Leafs took the best guy available in the draft.
Those choices worked out pretty well. Taking McKenna in one that should work out pretty well, too.
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