Takeaways from the Toronto Maple Leafs first month of the NHL season

We are already one month into the NHL season. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 11 games into their 82-game schedule, and they have yet to show anyone that they are better or worse than past versions of the Maple Leafs. Realistically, this will not be known until the playoffs, but for now, this team looks like the same good, not great team from years past.

In these first 13 games, the Leafs have shown mixed results, with a 6-5-2 record. They've lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Montreal Canadiens, teams expected to be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and twice to the St. Louis Blues, who will miss the NHL Playoffs. Still, they've also beaten the Tampa Bay Lightning, a strong team with a 7-3 record, and ended the Winnipeg Jets ' game-win streak.

After starting 4-2 through their first six games and only giving up more than three goals once, the Maple Leafs' new bench boss, Craig Berube, was praised for getting this group to play the 'right way'.

However, the Maple Leafs quickly reversed course. They lost three straight games to the Blue Jackets, Blues, and Boston Bruins, showing they are just as inconsistent as ever, before bouncing back with two more convincing wins.

Takeaways from the Toronto Maple Leafs first month of the NHL season

The only consistent narrative about this team is that they have improved defensively since the additions of Chris Tanev and Olliver Ekman-Larsson. However, this is not the case. This may be easily believed, considering Anthony Stolarz ranks second among goalies with 6.35 goals saved above expected, but this hides many of the Leafs defensive deficiencies.

For context, here is a chart I have put together that illustrates the Maple Leafs performance in October in critical defensive statistics over the last four seasons.

Stats via NaturalStatTrick

When I first looked at this data, I expected significant improvement. That was likely because of the attention paid to Berube's new systems and the new additions to the blue line. With how much it has been talked about, it is hard not to believe they have improved defensively. But, the stats say, not much has changed.

What's most notable is that the Maple Leafs averaged the most expected goals against per game in October compared to the first month of the year in the past three seasons. Their 3.13 expected goals allowed per game rank 23rd in the NHL, and expected goals are one of the most predictive factors in predicting who will win the Stanley Cup. In fact, four of the last five Stanley Cup winners have ranked inside the top five in expected goals against at five-on-five throughout the regular season.

Now, the Leafs are allowing 3.13 expected goals per game this season. But that includes data while they are on the penalty kill. But if you look at just the five-on-five data to fit that Stanley Cup trend, the Maple Leaf's defence is still far from where it needs to be. They allow 2.54 goals per game at even strength, making them 19th in the NHL.

Outside of the Leafs allowing far too many expected goals to sustainably be considered a Stanley Cup contender, nothing else is too noteworthy other than one high-danger chance less per game. Their defensive performance through the first month of the season has been almost identical to the three years prior.

Even the little things the Berube has been preaching about since being hired have remained the same. For example, physicality, the Leafs are averaging five fewer hits per game through their first 11 games than they did throughout 2023-24. Another example is Berube preaching intelligent decisions with the puck. Still, the Maple Leafs are averaging more turnovers per game and defensive turnovers per game than they have in the last two years (via MoneyPuck).

Despite most of the focus being on a struggling powerplay and a forward group that lacks depth, the Leafs have still been one of the best offensive teams in hockey. At five-on-five, they average 3.35 goals and 2.86 expected goals per game, which ranks fifth and seventh in the NHL in those categories; the offence is doing its job.

The Maple Leafs still have the same defensive issues they have had in years past. The goaltending has been hiding some of it to start the year. We have seen encouraging things out of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the first month of the season, but seeing these numbers look so similar to past years after one month makes you think, did they make enough changes?